250
FXUS63 KMKX 141929
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TOO EARLY TO TELL INTENSITY, BUT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL
STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES OF 70-90 PERCENT BOTH DAYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED AND WED NIGHT.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS AS
WELL. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-70S. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-50S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. PARENT TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO
POSITIVE, BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL. WARM FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, SO AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY CLEARING CAN
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE MID-AFTERNOON COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT.
DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND KICKS OFF A
SURFACE LOW. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE LEFTOVER
COLD FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
KICK NEGATIVE. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS NEGATIVE
TILT REMAINS LESS CERTAIN, WITH THE EURO INDICATING A NEGATIVE
TILT IN WISCONSIN, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOT DEVELOPING THE
NEGATIVE TILT UNTIL MICHIGAN OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THEREFORE,
CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AS THE EVENT NEARS.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND PIVOT TOWARD THE NORTH, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONGER
STORMS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE MID-70S ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
A BRIEF WAVE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS WE MOVE THROUGH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW, BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH (15-25%). HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO BRING WARM
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AT 20-25 KT AND CUMULUS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MONDAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING STEADY AROUND 12
KT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A BRIEF WAVE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.0 INCHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO 29.5 INCHES OVER WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE LAKE. A FEW GALES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS ALL OPEN WATERS INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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