095
FXUS63 KMKX 162358
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL MONITORING
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (HAIL/WIND), THOUGH THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS TARGETING
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SWIM RISK ARE BOTH IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS.
- THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SUNDAY
(35-50% CHANCES).
UPDATE
ISSUED 655 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THOUGH THE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION, AND
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY, MUCH OF
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED BY THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER / STORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED
TO BE WEAKER. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD LOCALIZE TO EAST-
CENTRAL WI AND DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST.
NO MAJOR UPDATES ON WEDNESDAY'S STORM POTENTIAL FROM THE 18Z
GUIDANCE, STILL SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DOWN BY THE IL BORDER, WITH EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
THE MORE POTENT SEVERE POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST (INTO IL
AND IN). WE'LL REEVALUATE WHEN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS READY.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI.
THUS FAR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS BEEN ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94, WITH A FEW IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LIGHTNING, HAIL UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING. BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LOOKING AT THE PARAMETER SPACING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY'S EVENT, WE ARE
JUST ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BETTER
ENVIRONMENT. THAT SAID, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
RECOVERY JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RECOVERY MAY MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION OF
WATCHING THE MESOSCALE CHANGES VERY CLOSELY. IF INSTABILITY
RECOVERY OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, MLCAPE WILL APPROACH
1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
DROPPING BELOW 1 INCH. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, TRENDING DRY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
PLAINS. WITH THIS, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WARMER TEMPS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AS MID-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY, WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND THIS WILL BE
THE REGION WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST (~50-60%).
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
START TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOERGEL/GAGAN
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE UNDER THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS + THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LOCALIZE TO EAST-CENTRAL WI AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH THE CUMULUS CLOUDS ERODING INTO THIS EVENING. DRY
WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST GRADUALLY BACKING SOUTH.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA LATE
TONIGHT, CRASHING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL WITH
AN ARRIVAL WINDOW OF 5-10 AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THEN CONTINUE TO FILL INTO SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE INITIALLY VFR UPON ARRIVAL,
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO FUEL ALT MVFR IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE, THEN
POTENTIALLY TO IFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS, PARTICULARLY FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE IL BORDER.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
VARIABILITY IN THE WIND FIELD.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN (29.5 INCHES). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF ONE INCH.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SUBSIDING. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (29.2 INCHES)
WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA, CROSSING LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW, EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE) WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG (PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE). BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST.
GAGAN
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
WIZ072...1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
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