133
FXUS63 KMKX 192358
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
658 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) SHOULD
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-94. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF MADISON.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, HIGHEST SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE AREA, SO EXPECT MORE REFINEMENTS
TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DRY AIR AND FORCING NOT ALIGNING HAS BEEN THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
LACK OF ORGANIZED DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE BETTER FORCING AND
SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST IN CENTRAL WI WHERE THE BASE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY LINE UP BETTER. WHILE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST EXTENT OF I-94
LOOK LIGHT AND SPORADIC, STILL COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI COUNTIES AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. WHILE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT, STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE LATER ARRIVAL PAIRED
WITH THE DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE KEEPING ANY OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER ACTIVITY ISOLATED. CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIRMASS QUICKLY SETTLES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CHANCES END BY 04-06Z.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING EAST
INTO THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
(40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THERE SHOULD BE UP TO 500 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE IN
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) TO OCCUR
AS WELL. THIS IS MAINLY SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
THUS, MAY SEE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE WOULD
SEE SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING RISK WITH ANY STORMS. STORMS
MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME PUSHING FURTHER EAST DURING THE
EVENING, AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS, BUT KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
EXIT OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THIS
EVENING, BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, BUT THINK THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY IN THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE HIGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY, THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO
OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SUNDAY. THERE HAS BEEN AN ENSEMBLE TREND WITH KEEPING THE
BETTER OR EVEN MOST OF THE QPF IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AS DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN NORTHERN AND EVEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL
LEAVE THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, BUT LOOK
FOR CONTINUED REFINEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS WE
GET CLOSER TO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
MAY BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A GENERAL TROUGH MAY LINGER
OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES, WITH
PERHAPS SOME SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. FOR
NOW, WILL LEAVE IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES, BUT STILL RATHER
COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR CENTRAL WI TERMINALS THAT MAY BRIEFLY BRING
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THIS EVENING'S SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER
EAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.8 INCHES APPROACHES THE LAKE. IT CROSSES NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS, WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES MOVING THROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY, REACHING CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, THEN INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. EAST WINDS
OVERSPREAD LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY, BECOMING GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND TURNING NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME,
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE.
LIGHTER WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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