815
FXUS63 KMKX 231759
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
- ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FROM PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE LAKE. MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY
THOUGH, SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.75" THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30" TONIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTY FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THIS SLOW
MOVING WAVE SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES. MARGINAL SHEAR,
INSTABILITY, AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY STORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-
SEVERE FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN ENOUGH
OF A BREAK AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP, SCATTERED STORMS MAY
FIRE AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG IF SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OCCURS. SOME ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL THUS BE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL
LOOK LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 4 TO 10 PM. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER MAY HANG ON LATE EVENING INTO EARLY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN LIKELY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TOMORROW ALONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE AND AS WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT LINGERS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL, WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF IT REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ONCE OR TWICE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END IN ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP TIMING AT
THIS POINT.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL HANG AROUND INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN PUSHING IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUDS
HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS, WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS SECOND ROUND, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ASIDE
FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL THEN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BRING CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE 29.9 INCHES DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND PROGRESSING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE LAKE. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1
INCHES, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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