053
FXUS63 KMKX 242224 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE FIRST ONE EXITING SOUTHEAST WI AND
THE NEXT ONE (BROKEN LINE) FROM CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH
ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE SHOWER/STORM PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- A STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 524 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. THERE
ARE TWO AREAS OF STORMS WE ARE WATCHING ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA IS IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND THAT IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY SINK INTO NORTHEAST IL. THESE WERE
ALONG A WARM-FRONT-TYPE BOUNDARY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL AREAS OF
ROTATION, A COUPLE OF HAIL CORES, AND ISOLATED HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. THE SECOND AREA IS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH 10
PM. WE ARE WATCHING THESE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF HAIL CORES. THE SUN IS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS
ABOUT 1500-2000 J/K OF CAPE IN THIS AREA PER LATEST RAP ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE. WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40
KT, SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW LCLS ALSO HELP
OUR TORNADO RISK. ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENT WOULD NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR A QLCS TORNADO CONCERN IF THE MOVEMENT IS DUE EAST
SINCE THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS W AT 25-30KT.
AFTER REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS A CONCERN.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
AS RAIN FROM THIS MORNING EXITS THE SOUTHEAST, WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS BEGUN ALONG A BOUNDARY
STRETCHED LARGELY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG (ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON WESTWARD)
ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40 KT, STILL THINKING A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS, GIVEN LIKELY MORE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS,
THOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN A NARROW SWATH OF 1.5 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE ALREADY SATURATED AREAS, SOME
LOCALIZED AREAL OR FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF
I-94 LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL LIFT DUE
TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ONCE AGAIN.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL, WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF IT REMAINS
DRY DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. THAT SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ONCE OR TWICE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END IN ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIP TIMING AT THIS POINT.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 524 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE FIRST
ROUND OF STORMS EXITS FAR SOUTHEAST WI AND A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,
TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING WE EXPECT
WINDS TO DECELERATE, TURNING EAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE AND REMAINING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES OVER ONTARIO
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY. SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS TO 29.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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