692
FXUS63 KMKX 052002
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES (15 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WI THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WOULD
BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
- MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES IN MILWAUKEE (SOUTH HALF),
RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING WAVE
HEIGHTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE SHORELINE. THERE IS
A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS SITTING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS (SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER) OVER WESTERN WI AND EASTERN IA. AREAS WEST OF
MADISON HAVE A CHANCE FOR THESE ISOLATED STORMS TO POP UP UNTIL
THE SUN STARTS SETTING, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVERAGE IS A WEAK INVERSION, BUT
PLACES ARE STARTING TO MEET THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NOW.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHEAST WI IS ENTRENCHED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
INCLUDING A MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS MARINE-
INFLUENCED AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CLOUD BASES ARE LOW
(1000-2000FT). SURFACE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS IS
HELPING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE ROCKFORD AREA AND THEY
COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD JANESVILLE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 BY LATE TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR BEHIND.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TODAY, BUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT LOWSWILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY GET BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S.
HOWEVER, COOLER BY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND WARMER TOWARD
WISCONSIN DELLS.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OR POSSIBLE MCV WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON WED, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS INTO NRN OR CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THU. SWLY SFC WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON WED. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED
NT OR THU WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS.
RAIN CHANCES OF 60-80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND COULD BE IN THE MODE OF A MCS, TYPICAL
OF SUMMER.
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MEAN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS TO NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PASS
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEASONAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH JUST 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
TIMES.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI IS
STARTING TO BREAK UP, WITH IFR CIGS RISING TO MVFR AND NOW MORE
DEVELOPING POCKETS OF VFR. INLAND AREAS HAVE HAD MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY WITH SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
INITIATE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS IN
WALWORTH AND ROCK COUNTIES. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF
MADISON THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ALL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN MONDAY.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT STEADY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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