669
FXUS63 KMKX 060500
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1200 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR START OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL INFLUENCE THE PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. GIVE LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG
AND INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS, BUT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN THE
LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW AN INCREASED THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN
LAND AND LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMP, CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON COOLING TEMPS
FROM EAST TO WEST A FEW DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE
MILDER AND ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO TREND AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS
LOW- LEVEL WAA INCREASES OVER THE REGION AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS WI LATER
IN THE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE FEATURES TREK
THROUGH, THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG WI BEING SITUATED IN
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST (<100KT) UPPER-LEVEL JET
ALIGNING WITH RIPPLE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND A SWATH OF LOW-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PAIRED WITH INCREASING PWATS +1.5
INCHES TO AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONTINUE TO SEE A SIGNAL (EQUIVALENT TO 5% CONVECTIVE CHANCE VIA
NCAR NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FORECASTS) OF STRONGER STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS
FORECAST TO BE +1000 MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC FORCING, IT
DOES REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST ALONG WITH MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY SOME CONCERN WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURES PHASING AND
MODEL NOT SUFFICIENTLY HANDLING IT AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS
WILL MONITOR ON HOW THINGS SHAPE UP IN THE COMING DAY AS A
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COULD SEE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. IF THINGS
SLOW DOWN, THEN ANY REMNANT CONVECTION (MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE)
THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LATE MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO
NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WI, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS WEST OF I-39
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE & VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT STEADY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY. THEN LOOKING AT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THEN WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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