218
FXUS63 KMKX 062340
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
640 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE WEST OF MADISON OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES
THE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 159 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE ON TUESDAY. ANY
LINE OF STORMS THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.
OUR CURRENT DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN EAST CENTRAL
WI TO THE MID 60S AT LONE ROCK. LOOKING BACK AT OBS FROM LAST
NIGHT, THE AREA UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER IOWA HAD AREAS OF
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE. THAT AREA WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WI TONIGHT.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 AND
MIN TEMPS SIMILAR, PATCHY FOG MAKES SENSE FROM MADISON TO
JANESVILLE AND WEST. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY AND POSSIBLE FOR THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY. EASTERN WI AREAS
WILL HAVE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS SO NOT EXPECTING FOG THERE.
WE WILL SEE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS TONIGHT. TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID- UPPER 80S TOWARD WISCONSIN DELLS
TO JUST SHY OF 80 ALONG THE LAKESHORE. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 159 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING
DOWN INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1000J/KG, COMBINED WITH
SYNOPTIC FORCING ON THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2" ALSO FAVOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION (50-70%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THESE
FACTORS CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY, LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD REDUCE THE
RISK OF SEVERE ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT MCS DEVELOPMENT.
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT COULD CREATE
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (60-80%), WITH
CONTINUED INSTABILITY PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR MCSS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IN
THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S RANGE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE HIGH 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND TO MONDAY.
ZAWLOCKI/CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FOR AREA WEST OF I-39
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LAND AND LAKE MICHIGAN, EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BRINGING BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 159 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT STEADY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.8 INCHES AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDING INTO THE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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