234
FXUS63 KMKX 081003 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
503 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF A MINERAL POINT, TO
MADISON, TO SHEBOYGAN LINE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARD, ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
STORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BACK
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE IS
POINTING INTO WITH FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY HELP TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS, PERHAPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THAT MAY
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LEFT 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
MAY SEE CIRRUS ANVILS MOVE MORE INTO THE AREA AND MAY LINGER
MORE INTO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST.
DESPITE THIS, THERE SHOULD BE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER
CAPE THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. CAMS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
MIDDLE TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, THEN
SHIFTING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
IF THEY ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. STILL, IF THEY ARRIVE EARLIER,
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS. SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A MINERAL POINT, TO MADISON, TO
SHEBOYGAN LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IMPACTS MAY LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR, AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD BRUSH THE NORTH
TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE AREA. STORMS ARE THEN LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS, AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSH 2 INCHES. STILL THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR TEMPS TO WARM WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVE IN, SO KEPT HIGH TEMPS LARGELY
IN THE UPPER 80S. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 90 DEGREE
READING OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE LINGER WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS WED NIGHT INTO THU, THOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED BY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY SITS
OVER THE REGION. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW STORMS
SNEAK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF
THE TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO THE MORNING HOURS,
PERHAPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THAT MAY CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INCLUDING THE SHEBOYGAN TERMINAL.
MAY SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST MOVE MORE INTO THE AREA AND MAY LINGER INTO THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MADISON AND
JANESVILLE TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4000 TO 5000
FOOT AGL CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AND LINGER DURING THIS TIME.
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY OCCUR FOR
TERMINALS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WINDS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR
EAST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM MIDDLE TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA, THEN SHIFTING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS
IF THEY ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. STILL, IF THEY ARRIVE EARLIER,
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A MINERAL POINT, TO MADISON, TO
SHEBOYGAN LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS, ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET
AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE
SHEBOYGAN TERMINAL, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. MODEST SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, WITH CHANCES LINGERING LATER TONIGHT AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION. THE HIGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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