358
FXUS63 KMKX 090015 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH
OF A MINERAL POINT, TO MADISON, TO SHEBOYGAN LINE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE SAME AREAS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY
OCCUR.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 715 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, LARGELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE GOING FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH
LATE EVENING, WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS AND A
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THOUGH. MAY NEED TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT IF RADAR TRENDS MATCH WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY:
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OVER RACINE
COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY SOME DEVELOPMENT FOR
KENOSHA COUNTY SOON. OTHERWISE A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD
ACROSS FAR NRN IA AND ADJACENT MN. THIS AREA OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF WEAK WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
WI INTO SE MN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WI AS WELL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS MLCAPE BUILDS TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL WI BUT
DECREASING TO 20 KTS OVER SRN WI WITH A LESSENING OF OVERALL
SHEAR TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH CAPE AND
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL SUPPORT A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A TIME TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
FOR LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MORE OF A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A WLY 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED THETAE ADVECTION WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THE
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS IS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS. THE CAMS AND MODEL QPF SUGGEST THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. ONGOING SCATTERED STORMS AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONLY MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED WITH RATHER
WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUING. THUS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
VERY LOW AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
NELY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO WI.
SEASONAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT VALUES ALONGSIDE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S RANGE,
INCREASING INTO THE LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
ZAWLOCKI/GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 715 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, LARGELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE GOING FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH
LATE EVENING, WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS AND A
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THOUGH. MAY NEED TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT IF RADAR TRENDS MATCH WHAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, PARTICULARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MONROE
TO PORT WASHINGTON, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 156 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEST SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1
INCHES BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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