037
FXUS63 KMKX 132348 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
648 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MODESTLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100
AT TIMES, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 93 AND
97 FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI BASED ON THE ASOS/AWOS MEASUREMENTS.
THERE WERE SOME HOME WEATHER STATIONS THAT REPORTED HIGHER
VALUES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE WITH A
FEW SPOTS HIGHER IN SOUTHEAST WI. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WI, EXCEPT THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR ANYONE WITHOUT A/C. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL, WEAKENING A BIT
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
EXPECTED HOT STRETCH OF HIGHS IN THE 90S IS STILL ON TRACK UNDER
THIS RIDGING PATTERN.
DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HEAD INDICES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN
AFTERNOON MIXING LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FROM MATURING
CROPS POTENTIALLY BUMPING DEWPOINTS UP A BIT. OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS, DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT SEEM TO BE MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
SOLUTIONS SO FAR TODAY. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL THAT DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPS UNDER 925 MB TEMPS OF 27-30 C.
IF DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER INTO THE LOW 70S, THEN HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EASILY REACH OR ECLIPSE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. IF DEWPOINTS
ARE LOWER, THEN TEMPS MAY WIND UP A BIT HIGHER INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS PLENTY HOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH WED.
WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LARGELY KEEP
THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY THOUGH, AS THE
PREVAILING WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN HOT TEMPS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM THE SOUTH THU/FRI THOUGH, WHICH COULD OPEN THE WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY,
SO HELD OFF ON LOW END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY. THE
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY COULD ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO SLIDE
THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR A FEW
STORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER TO TRANSITION FROM A RIDGING
TO TROUGHING PATTERN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN AND WOULD BE
MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS OF 90+ ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.
BY THE WEEKEND, THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SAT THROUGH MON. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT AS
WELL, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND WESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BRING IT TO KMKE.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SINK INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING TO 30.1 INCHES. LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...HEAT ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...NOON TUESDAY
TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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