596
FXUS63 KMKX 192010
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WISCONSIN DNR HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF WISCONSIN THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY.
LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LEAD TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) THREAT LEVEL. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THESE
STORMS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT BENEATH 1015MB HIGH
PRESSURE. WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS IN PLACE. DNR / EPA AIR QUALITY
MONITORING STATIONS INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY "UNHEALTHY" (RED)
AQI VALUES FROM PM2.5 (SMOKE) ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN (AS OF
250 PM CDT), WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO 1 CATEGORY LOWER
("UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS") OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME DILUTION / MIXING-OUT OF
THE SMOKE. HRRR SMOKE CONCENTRATION FORECASTS RESOLVE THIS
DILUTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN WI AS WELL, AND EVEN ALLOW IT TO
SLOWLY CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SMOKE
APPEARS TO BE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI, WHERE LITTLE TO
NO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BREEZE BEGINS TO SLOWLY REMOVE THE CONCENTRATED SMOKE
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AIR-QUALITY IMPACTS WRAPPING
UP BY MIDDAY MONDAY. NOTE THAT THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY ISSUED
BY THE WI-DNR REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
NOON CDT MONDAY. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SMOKE MAY THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT'LL BE
BELOW ADVISORY LIMITS.
3 TRIGGERING MECHANISMS / TIME WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED ON MONDAY. THE FIRST INVOLVES THE NOSE OF THE
500MB JET STREAK / SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. QG ASCENT COULD FIRE OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN WI AS SEEN IN THE 18Z RUN OF THE
HRRR. A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX (OR FRESHLY INITIATED ONE) COULD
REACH AREAS WEST OF MADISON LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PRACTICALLY ZERO MODEL RUNS DEPICTING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THERE.
NEXT, WE HAVE THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA MID TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW CAMS
(INCLUDING, ONCE AGAIN, THE 18Z HRRR) ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE, THIS TIME WITH EVEN BETTER
DYNAMICS (FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT) AND THERMODYNAMICS (CAPE
BUILDING TO 1,000-2,000 JOULES, LOCALLY HIGHER NORTHWEST OF
MADISON). THE INCREASING HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FROM THE WAA ALLOWS
FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT.
THIRD, WE HAVE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODELS ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS TO REINFORCE
/ ACCELERATE THE FRONT, ALLOWING IT TO ARRIVE IN TIME TO
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER MODELS LEAVE IT WELL BEHIND THE STORMS AND BRING IT
THROUGH WITH DRY WEATHER (THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION). IN
EITHER CASE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO COLD-
POOL AND GROW UPSCALE MONDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN
MCS CROSSING OR CLIPPING THE REGION.
LONG STORY SHORT, WE FACE A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 SEVERE THREAT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS FOR THE EVENING. COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
~30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN WI ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. OTHER
THAN THAT, PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS (HIGHS IN THE 70S, DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEGREES) PASSES
THROUGH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS / HUMIDITY IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW AND
STEADY DECREASE IN SMOKE COVERAGE INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, TURNING
SOUTH TONIGHT. ACCELERATING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS SOUTHWEST WI
(MAINLY NEAR OR WEST OF MADISON) LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING (BEST
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FOR THE EVENING). PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE
OF THE STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH AREAS OF
DENSER SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 NAUTICAL MILE AT
TIMES. A MARINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO CANADA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT,
BECOMING GUSTY INTO MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AS IT PASSES. WINDS
VEER DUE NORTH LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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