143
FXUS63 KMKX 201103
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WISCONSIN DNR HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF WISCONSIN THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY. ANY
LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LEAD TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ENHANCED
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) THREAT LEVEL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS.
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR AREA BEACHES IN OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE THREATENING
WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED IN HIGH SWIM RISK AREAS. STAY
OUT OF THE WATER, AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS,
BREAKWALLS AND RIVER OUTLETS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WELL... ITS BEEN AN INTERESTING NIGHT WATCH STORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
TURN INTO A NICE MCS. MESO GUIDANCE IS NOT GOING TO BE HELPFUL
HERE AS MANY ARE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO REALITY. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS TO THE WEST IN EASTERN MN AND IA.
AS THE RAIN AND STORMS MOVE EAST OFF THIS GRADIENT THERE SHOULD
BE A WEAKENING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BUT WITH THE LLJ
ACROSS WESTERN WI, MN AND IA, HOW MUCH DO THE STORMS WEAKEN,
BECOMES THE QUESTION. INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE
SMALLEST AMOUNT OF CHANGE GIVEN THAT THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE
FURTHEST FROM THE LLJ AND INSTABILITY. THIS MAKES IT LIKELY
THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO HERE. FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY. FOR STORMS STILL ATTACHED TO THE LLJ,
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH WINDS, LIGHTING
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
FOR THIS WOULD BE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON. TIMING HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH IRONICALLY JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE HAS
CHANGED. IF THE RAIN AND STORMS HOLD TOGETHER THEY SHOULD REACH
THE MADISON AREA AROUND 8-9 AM. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON COULD SEE RAIN AS EARLY AS 6:30 TO 7 ISH. TIMING BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS EVENING, THIS CURRENT ROUND COULD
NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE, CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UNLESS THERE IS MAJOR CLEARING WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS, THIS COULD END UP BEING A DUD OF AN EVENT. AN
ENVIRONMENT WORKED OVER TOO EARLY AND OVERCAST SKIES PREVENTING
ANY MEANINGFUL REDEVELOPMENT. STILL A BIT TO EARLY TO CALL THIS
OFF, BUT THE AFTERNOON TRENDS NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFUL. IF
CLEARING OCCURS THEN THE GAME IS ON.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED MARGINALLY THIS EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA REPORTING VISIBILITY ABOVE 5 MILES. SOME OF THE THICKER
WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST TO
WEST OF MADISON AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON, WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR OUT AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE, THOUGH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO 6
MILES IS EXPECTED THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. WITH THE WILDFIRE
SMOKE LINGERING, AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY STAYS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON MONDAY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGH WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS AT
BEACHES IN OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION.
HOW THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL HEAVILY DETERMINE WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL SET UP ON
MONDAY.
AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE AND BROADEN AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX OVER MINNESOTA. CAMS
THEN SHOW THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POTENTIALLY RIDING SE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE AND POST DAWN HOURS
ON MONDAY. WHILE THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
MORNING, 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT SOME STRENGTH AS IT
CLIPS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIMIT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER
SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIMIT WHERE BETTER RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS EVENING’S CAMS HAVE SOMEWHAT
PULLED BACK ON THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THEY HAVE FAVORED A MORE WESTERN
SOLUTION WHERE STORMS WOULD CLIP THE WESTERN HALF OR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS WOULD STILL LIKELY
BE SUPERCELLULAR, AND CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, OWING TO EFFECTIVE
SHEAR THAT WILL BE GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS. THE WAVE ALOFT IS ALSO
STILL POTENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG SPEED ALOFT THAT
WILL PROMOTE STORM STRONG LIFT. BUT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD BE MORE CONTAINED TO A LIMITED AREA OF OUR CWA.
TWO OTHER SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT IS THAT THE STRATIFORM
RAIN FROM WHATEVER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ROLLS THROUGH IN THE
MORNING WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STABILITY OVER THE REGION WHICH
WOULD SKUNK SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. YET
ANOTHER SCENARIO COULD BE THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
THE DAKOTAS DIES, MONDAY MORNING RETURN FLOW IS UNABATED, AND WE
SEE WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RADAR TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SEE HOW THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PLAYS OUT. HRRR AND RRFS SOLUTIONS FAVOR
THE SCENARIO IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO
PAN OUT, STORMS WOULD GET GOING AS SOON AS 4:00 PM AND THEN
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1017 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: COOL ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST IN THE LOW LEVELS ON
TUESDAY AS MONDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY A SECONDARY
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONTAL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHICH WILL ACT TO DRAW AN AIR MASS FROM THE HUDSON BAY
VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE PASSING SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD TRIGGER A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BEING MOST FAVORED FOR ACTIVITY
AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
MAINTAING A COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEADILY
CLIMBING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL EVENTUALLY ACCOMPANY THE RISING
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH ITS ARRIVAL WILL LAG BEHIND THAT OF THE WARMER
AIR TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL THUS HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS
AS A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT PULLS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND MONDAY'S INITIAL COLD FRONT, WHICH AS OF THIS
FORECAST APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN ARE CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED FOR ACTIVITY, GIVEN MAXIMIZED
LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM THE PASSING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE FAVORED PRECIP CORRIDORS AND
HAZARDS POTENTIAL OVER COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A LINE OF STORMS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CONDITIONS. UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN VISIBILITIES COULD
FALL TO 2-5 SM. CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1-4 KFT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT ANY OF THE EASTERN (LAKESHORE)
TERMINALS. WILL BE ADDING A SHORT WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR THE TIME
BEING. TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON (MSN) WILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS THIS MORNING.
A BREAK IN THE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND RAIN LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH OVERCAST SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT WITH THE
STORMS THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. FOR THE WILDFIRE SMOKE, CONDITIONS ON THAT
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN. THE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
GRADUAL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1126 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH AREAS OF
DENSER SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 NAUTICAL MILE AT
TIMES. A MARINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO
CANADA INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY INTO MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE LAKE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AS IT PASSES. WINDS
VEER DUE NORTH LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645...1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY.
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