491
FXUS63 KMKX 231557 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
(THUNDERSTORMS) THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY. EXPECT A
LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND START SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH MID EVENING.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1238 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THIS MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO
SOME FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO MAINLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND.
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S, TURNING A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, TURNING A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A MODERATE SWIM RISK THAT DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1238 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
AXIS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BRING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES (AROUND
20 PERCENT OR LESS) FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME, THOUGH IT
MAY BE TOO CAPPED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ANYTHING TO
DEVELOP. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNTIL
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. THESE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE PERIODIC AND NOT CONTINUOUS. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THERE MAY BE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS WILL HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH RATHER SMALL TEMPERATURE SPREADS EACH DAY.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH
BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7KFT. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND
(NOT QUITE TO KUES). THE TAF HAD THE WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AT
KMKE AT 1700Z/11AM, BUT THIS WAS AMENDED TO DELAY IT UNTIL 19Z.
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WILL BUILD WAVES UP TO
2 TO 4 FEET TOWARD AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES CROSSES WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD
QUEBEC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINTAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO THERE WILL BE SWITCHES BETWEEN
NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
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