221
FXUS63 KMKX 231911
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
211 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FOR SHEBOYGAN
AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED. STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS,
BREAKWALLS, AND RIVER OUTLETS.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
(THUNDERSTORMS) THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 211 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOOK FOR STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY, CLOSER TO
80.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WILL BUILD WAVES UP TO
2 TO 4 FEET TOWARD AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED
FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES.
THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARD 70. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL WI. WITH THE WEAK
FORCING MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING IT THIS FAR OUT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE HERE SO THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 211 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT SOMEWHERE IN WISCONSIN. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD CENTRAL AT THIS TIME. INITIATION OF STORMS COULD
WAIT FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING, BUT IT
COULD ALSO GO EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE, SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH CAPE (OVER 3000 J/KG) AND SOMEWHAT OF A
STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPH FOR SOUTHERN WI WITH BULK SHEAR OF AROUND
40 KT. ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT STORMS INITIATE IN CENTRAL WI AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WITH WIND A DECENT
THREAT. THAT IS ONLY ONE POSSIBILITY, BECAUSE IF THE STORMS
INITIATE IN SOUTHERN WI IF THE BOUNDARY IS THIS FAR SOUTH AND WE
CAN TAP INTO BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, THEN ALL HAZARDS WILL BE
A CONCERN. SPC INTRODUCED A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN WI.
WHEREVER THE STORMS LAY OUT A BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS MONDAY. IN ADDITION,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR (OR NORTHERN WI) MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER STORMS. AS LONG AS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS TIME TO RECOVER
BETWEEN SUN EVENING AND MON AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A SEVERE
RISK ONCE AGAIN.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID RIDGE SITTING
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, THUS
WARM AND HUMID IN SOUTHERN WI AND COOLER/LESS HUMID IN NORTHERN
WI. WE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE "RIDGE RIDERS" WHERE STORM
COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP EACH EVENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THERE IS NOT GUARANTEE THAT WE WILL SEE STORMS EVERY DAY,
BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 211 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE LAKE BREEZE IS SLOWLY MOVING INLAND, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT PAST THE KETTLE MORAINE RIDGE (NOT QUITE TO KUES). THE
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET, AND WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
A WEAKER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, BUT REMAIN CLOSE
TO THE SHORELINE (AFFECTING KMKE AND KRAC, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
FOR KSBM AND KENW).
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 211 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WILL BUILD WAVES UP TO
2 TO 4 FEET TOWARD AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES DRIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A 29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD QUEBEC
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINTAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH HALF.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SIT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, SO THERE WILL BE SWITCHES BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT TIMES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
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