269
FXUS63 KMKX 290449
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND
CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT ARE MOST LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN AND AROUND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN LINGERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING DEW
POINTS MORE MANAGEABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DAYTIME
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH WARMER
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
RETURN AND MODEST WAA BOOSTS TEMPS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WANE BEFORE DAWN. A BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ELONGATED TROUGH (GFS AND NAM)
OR CLOSED SFC WAVE (ECMWF) OVER THE WESTERN CORN BELT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM
ADVECTION.
TONIGHT, DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND STORMS FOR THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM POPS HAVE RESPONDED IN
KIND, AND HAVE INCREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT, FAVORING 60 TO 80%
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONE THING TO NOTE IS
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE,
LINGERING FROM THE PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THIS DRY AIR SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RRFS. DRYNESS MAY
LINGER AT THE SURFACE PRECEDING THE RAIN AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. WHILE THIS MAY BE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EVENT ONCE RAINS GETS STARTED, IT
MAY BE LOW QPF, AND HARDLY A DROUGHT BUSTER.
A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH,
PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS LEANS EAST
INTO WISCONSIN, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ON
TUESDAY.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1112 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SAVE FOR
SOME CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY AND PERHAPS FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
EVENING, WITH GUSTS AT KMKE AND KENW ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1108 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM ONTARIO. LOCALLY, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED, AND LINGERING HIGH
WAVES WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
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