120
FXUS63 KMKX 311643
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST TODAY,
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-94.
- 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONTELLO TO MEQUON WITH
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES (+40% CHANCE) FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF I-90 CORRIDOR.
- PONDING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER RAINFALL RATES AND DRIER
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL IS PANNING OUT SO FAR FOR SOUTHERN WI
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SEEING THE RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW SPREADING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THE RAINFALL
INITIALLY BATTLED SOME DRY AIR WITH 5-10 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, IT EVENTUALLY SATURATED AS SEEN ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH THE EVENING AS SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DCVA AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALIGN WITH THE PASSING LOW. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, INCREASED SHOWERS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. CHANCES EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN AND LOSE SYNOPTIC
FORCING. WILL ALSO SEE COVERAGE BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS CHANCES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AROUND 1 INCH TO
2 INCHES NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE LIGHTER RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT
REMAIN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND SYNOPTIC FORCING
WHERE DRIER AIR LAST LONGER. SO AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
MONTELLO TO MEQUON WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN
INCH. MEANWHILE, AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES TO SEE 1-3 INCHES ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING 3 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHER RAINFALL WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF LONGER RESIDENCE
TIME OF THE RAINFALL PLUS THE BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE TROWAL,
PWATS APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING AROUND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WHILE RAINFALL RATES
IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH PER HOUR,
COULD SEE A FEW TALLER SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE BETTER FORCING
AXIS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1"/HR RATES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT LIGHTNING FLASH.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION LIGHT
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES UNDER HALF AN INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN
THIS TREND PAIRED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS, MUCH OF
THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED GIVEN THE MOISTURE DEFICIT.
THUS WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS AND POCKETS OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES, WHICH IF THEY OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, COULD RESULT IN PONDING AND MINOR
FLOODING. BUT COVERAGE FOR THESE CONCERN WILL ISOLATED AND
REALLY NEED TO SEE +1IN/HR RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
SEVERAL INCHES. NEVERTHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS END UP DEVELOPING.
PERSISTING RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 60S-70) AS WELL AS FOR SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE
70S). IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPS AND RAINFALL, THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE PASSING SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREA SOUTH OF I-94.
STRONGER WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TO 4-7FT ALONG THE
LAKESHORE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES MORE INTO IN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS, SHOWER CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ENDING BY SUNSET
SATURDAY.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 111 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
EXITS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
FOR MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR PHASING WITH THIS
LOW, AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EASTWARD (20-30%). HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, THEREFORE KEPT NBM POPS IN THE 15-25%
RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. MAY ALSO
SEE POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL SEE THESE CONDITION SPREAD EAST
OF I-39 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES AND
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSIST WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION TO
THE PERSISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT GUSTS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OF 20-25 KT AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT ESPECIALLY
FOR MSN, JVL, ENW, AND MKE GIVEN THE LOW TRACK.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA
TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THEN LOOKING AT STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WI NEARSHORE ZONE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL
WITH WAVE BUILDING UP TO 4-7 FT. ALSO ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN DIMINISH INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
WIZ072...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM
SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.
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