974
FXUS63 KMKX 011905
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
205 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO YIELD SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP (LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL) OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WI, WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SOME TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, OUR
FORECAST LEAVES SOME ~15% CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BUILD
INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
MAKING IT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THIS TYPE OF
REDEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. HENCE, PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT LOW-STRATUS CLOUDS
(OR PERHAPS SURFACE-BASED FOG) ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE/DEVELOP IN
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MANNER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE RAIN-HUMIDIFIED AIRMASS, NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
WINDS, AND POTENTIAL FOR GAPS IN THE SYNOPTIC CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING, THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY,
HELPING TO CLEAR OUT ANY LOW-STRATUS (OR FOG) THAT MAY HAVE
FORMED AND LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE, BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
WILL ALLOW THE HIGH SWIM RISK TO CONTINUE FOR LAKE MI BEACHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO THE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WEAK
SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED LIGHT LAKE BREEZES OVER
FAR EASTERN WI. CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S (LOCALLY WARMER BY THE LAKE), WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND
80 MONDAY TRENDING UP INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY (LOCALLY COOLER BY
THE LAKE).
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY,
WORKING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE (DEPARTED EAST) TO
HOLD THE RELATIVELY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF WI (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). MEANWHILE, DEEP LOW PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY DRAGS A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BISECT WI AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY PM, AND THOUGH IT'S SURFACE WIND FIELD AND BAROCLINICITY
MAY BEGIN TO WASH OUT, IT PHASES WITH AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER JET, WITH SOME SPEED DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING
IT. AS SUCH, WE COULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY (OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES 40-60%).
ENSEMBLE ESTIMATES OF CAPE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 1,000 TO 2,000 JOULES, THOUGH THE
MODELED POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY + QPF + WIND SHEAR
REVEAL THE CONVECTION MAY LAG BEHIND THE PEAK INSTABILITY,
FIRING IN NORTHERN / CENTRAL WI EARLY EVENING AND ARRIVING LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN WI. AS SUCH, THERE IS NO ORGANIZED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SIMILARLY, THE CURRENT
TIMING FOR THE FRONT AND PRECIP WOULD LEAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES. BUT, DEPENDING ON THE FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY, A RELATIVELY DRY AND CLOUD FREE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY
COULD ALLOW AIRMASS RECOVERY FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (A SCENARIO SHOWN IN A COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS).
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARBY, AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST ALLOWING FOR STRONGER (40-50KT) BULK SHEAR VALUES
TO ARRIVE. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND JET ENTRANCES PASS BY,
GIVING MERIT TO 10-35% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
STRONGER SHEAR COULD ENABLE STRONGER STORMS, BUT TIMING OF THE
TRIGGER MECHANISMS WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY WOULD BE REQUIRED
FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN WI SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXIT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN CEILING ALTITUDE. THIS WILL LEAVE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING, WITH A MIX OF VFR
(NORTHWEST) AND MVFR (SOUTHEAST) CEILINGS. NORTHEAST WINDS
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO TONIGHT, BUT COULD REMAIN BREEZY FOR
SHORELINE TERMINALS IN EASTERN WI.
DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING, FORECAST MODELS CALL FOR LOW-STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, LIKELY
REACHING FUEL ALT MVFR OR IFR LEVELS FROM THEN THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER APART. VFR WOULD THEN
DOMINATE FROM MIDDAY ONWARDS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TERMINALS OBSERVE SIMILARLY GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECTING 20-30 KT GUSTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TURNING
WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL 20-30 KT WIND GUSTS
TO THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. ISOLATED GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES THEN BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY, LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TIME.
NEARSHORE ZONES FROM SHEBOYGAN THROUGH WINTHROP HARBOR:
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET (HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY EQUALLY GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
INTO SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
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