178
FXUS63 KMKX 140605
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
105 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE BORDER THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, WITH
20-50% CHANCES FOR A STRAY CELL TO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWEST WI.
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING (50-80% CHANCES) DELIVERING A SOAKING
RAINFALL. NOTE THAT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE (20-50%) FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO MISS US ENTIRELY, TRACKING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER.
- DRIER & MORE COMFORTABLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM
CHANCES RETURNING BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE EXISTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPANNING FROM EAST IA TO
CENTRAL IL SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING, LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER. A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF STORMS ORIGINATING FROM IA MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WI POST-DAWN THIS MORNING BASED ON 00Z CAM GUIDANCE (20-50%
CHANCE, MAINLY FOR LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTY ONLY), THOUGH
INSTABILITY WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIMITED IF IT EVEN MAKES IT HERE
(LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER, BUT INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO
PLAY IT SAFE). ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY NEAR AND
SOUTH / SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A STRAY CELL TO
DRIFT AND DECAY INTO OUR REGION.
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KS, BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THIS WILL PLAY OUT. I REALLY MEAN IT WHEN I SAY "UNCERTAINTY"
THIS TIME... CHECK OUT THE 14.00Z HRRR: TWO NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES INITIATE, ONE CRASHES THROUGH NORTHERN IL, THE OTHER
THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST WI, AND SOUTHERN WI GETS DRY WEATHER. THEN
FOR ANOTHER SCENARIO, CHECK OUT THE 13.21Z RAP, 14.00Z NAM AND
NAM NEST, THE SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CRASHES INTO SOUTHERN
WI AND DELIVERS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN EITHER SCENARIO, INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED (HREF MEAN MUCAPE BELOW 500 JOULES). NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, JUST EFFICIENT RAINFALL IF APPLICABLE.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY, LIKELY DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
WI. THE EXACT ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE FRONT IS NOT YET CERTAIN, BUT
THE INITIAL NW WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR THE EARLY MORNING
(PREDAWN) HOURS, FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER DEWPOINTS
(LOW 60S OR POTENTIALLY EVEN 50S) ON THESE SAME WINDS AND / OR A
SECONDARY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (WITH NE WINDS) SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE 500MB PATTERN, WE DO HAVE A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
COULD PHASE WELL WITH THE WARM SECTOR OVER IN / IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT DOESN'T LEAVE US MUCH TO WORK WITH IN
SOUTHERN WI. A ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WOULD
ALSO (POTENTIALLY) LEAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO INTERFERE WITH
PEAK HEATING, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY WHEN THE AFTERNOON
SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE / BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ALL
THIS TO SAY SUNDAY'S STORM SETUP LEAVES A LOT IN QUESTION, BUT
THE ODDS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR
NOW. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES 50-65%, PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND TAPERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS
AND INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING
SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP,
LOCALLY REDUCING SOME TERMINALS TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ANVIL CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH MAY SHIELD FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI FROM
THE WORST OF THE FOG, BUT ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME
PATCHES OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG, AND ADVISORY FOR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
FOG BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE STATE BORDER AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WI (POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PROB30 GROUPS OUT OF TAFS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS). BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN AT
GENERALLY VFR LEVELS.
INTO TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE (NOT A GUARANTEE) FOR A CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO WAFFLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY
YIELDING RAINFALL, SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER, AND DECREASING CLOUD
CEILINGS. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY THROUGH ILLINOIS INSTEAD. IN EITHER SCENARIO,
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SYNOPSIS:
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A FRONT THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES
OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD HELP
TO BUMP UP WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION MIDWEEK.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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