508
FXUS63 KMKX 151948
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM AT MILWAUKEE, OZAUKEE,
AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES.
- DRIZZLE & A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING (~9 PM & EARLIER)
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
- DRIER & MORE COMFORTABLE MONDAY. STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: BUSY PATTERN IS APPARENT REGIONALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A NUMBER OF FEATURES IMPACTING CURRENT & SHORT TERM
WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST TOWARD
THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN VICINITY, WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
BRANCHING TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST. SAID FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH CURRENT OBS PLACING THE FEATURE ALONG AN
APPROXIMATE MONROE - EDGERTON - BURLINGTON LINE. WHILE TEMP/DEW
POINT DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR & NORTH OF THE FRONT. BEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHERE WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS BEING
FURTHER AUGMENTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR EXPANSIONS IN COVERAGE AS THE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO WORK
NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS IN ANY POP-UPS. THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST TONIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE PROCESS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED, NON-SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS TO
MOST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM AT MILWAUKEE, OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES DUE
TO ELEVATED AND BREAKING WAVES. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF HEADING
LAKESIDE. WILL BE MONITORING POP-UP SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH ~7 PM,
IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
ENCROACHING COLD FRONT NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS IN ANY ACTIVITY, THOUGH THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IF THUNDER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT
ARRIVAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, ANTICIPATING WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN ANY POST-MIDNIGHT PRECIP, WITH MANY LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MUGGIER CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, TRIGGERING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE RETURNING HUMID AIR
MASS. TUESDAY EVENING & NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORED
FOR STORMS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BROADER INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, THOUGH WHERE
EXACTLY THOSE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER BEST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. IF THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
LONG ENOUGH, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO PLEASANT & LARGELY PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS BROAD WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY: CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE A WINDOW OF
STORM POTENTIAL ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC &
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOUND AGREEMENT REGARDING AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
THIS TIME FRAME AS BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT, CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN PRECIP PROBABILITIES
FROM THE NBM, WHICH MAXIMIZE (~75+%) DURING THE ~7 PM TUESDAY - 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A SEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER JET/ATTENDANT WIND SHEAR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
POINTS TOWARD ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL, THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY THE
BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVERLAP WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY DEPICT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN INSTABILITY PLUME CENTERED
OVER IOWA, WHICH IF VERIFIED WOULD GENERALLY PLACE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BACK WESTWARD. ANY
CHANGES IN FRONTAL TIMING, HOWEVER, WOULD LEAD TO SHIFTS IN THE
INSTABILITY PLUME AND ZONE(S) OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
THOUGH WHETHER ENOUGH STORMS AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS TO SUPPORT A
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL THUS BE MONITORING TRENDS
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF JVL SOUTHEAST TO ENW. IFR CIGS,
IN ADDITION TO DZ AND VIS REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR MOVING
FURTHER NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR-TERM FORECASTS TO OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. HAVE
WITHHELD ANY IFR/DZ/BR MENTIONS IN THE MSN & METRO MILWAUKEE TAFS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT, BUT WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF DZ, A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING NEAR THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTIONS AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF RETURNING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
EVENING, PRIOR TO CIG REDUCTIONS MOVING BACK IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE HAS
MOTIVATED CONTINUED PROB30 MENTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 18Z
UPDATE. WILL BEGIN ROLLING PROB30 GROUPS INTO TEMPO, PREVAILING, OR
NILL MENTIONS AS TRENDS CLARIFY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
LAKE. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
A NEW AREA OF 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRECISE TIMING
DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER COMING FORECASTS, THOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE THROUGH 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS &
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT, WITH SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECISE TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN COMING FORECASTS,
THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS ACTIVITY. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
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