494
FXUS63 KMKX 171353
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 851 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS
LINGERED A TOUCH LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED NEAR THE WISCONSIN
RIVER, SO HAVE ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL FOG MENTIONS THROUGH 11 AM
TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. EXPECT FOG WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED THEREAFTER. PLEASANT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO IN OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF MADISON OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP
THE WINDS OUT OF THE NE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE GENERALLY NW WINDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO
WISCONSIN, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S.
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING WI ON TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND A SOUTHERLY (FAIRLY WEAK) LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND ALSO A LITTLE WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE
STORMS AS WELL. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
WE WILL SETTLE INTO A NEW WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST WILL PUT SOUTHERN WI IN AN AREA WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
BUT WE WILL MAINLY BE ON THE COOLER/DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND OUR FORECAST IS DRY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND COULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A CONVERGENT BAND ALONG THE LAKESHORE PRODUCE SWATH OF CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 4-5KFT ALONG WITH POCKETS OF 1.5-2.5KFT RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. WHILE WE HAVE
SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING, COULD SEE ADDITIONAL WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF ANY IMPACTS AS ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF
AND TRANSIENT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AND PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE
NORTH, BUT VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT APPEARS MOST FAVORED
FOR STORM POTENTIAL, WITH STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL
SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE NEXT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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