916
FXUS63 KMKX 261913
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
213 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
- RAIN-FREE & PLEASANT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
- TRENDING ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-CRITERIA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WINDS HAVE LARGELY VEERED NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD CU HAVE FORMED
IN THE CAA REGIME. A STRONGER VORTMAX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LIONS SHARE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SO FAR. AS THE DAY GOES
ON, THIS VORTMAX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE. IT MAY DRAG SOME POCKETS
OF PVA OVER THE STATE AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS PATH INTO TONIGHT,
CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (~15-20%
CHANCES)OVER SOUTHERN WI BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AFTER
SUNSET.
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RISE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 80. HUMIDITY SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH GOOD SLEEPING WEATHER SETTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD. AS THE HIGH
EXITS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, STRONG WAA OVER THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COMPLEX MAY THEN RIDE THE NOSE OF THE WAA
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH SOME OF THE CAMS SHARPLY WEAK THESE STORMS AS
THE TRAVEL SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORE OF THE REMAINING SFC RIDGE.
BETTER CHANCES (~60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN EMERGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ THAT WAS OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WAA
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO FORM EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN
LINGER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, GENERALLY WEAKENING AS
THE LLJ WANES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT
UPON SKIES CLEARING PROMPTLY AFTER THE MORNING RAIN. LONG RANGE
MODELS GET A BIT MURKIER HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD CONTINUE
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE PROLONGED WAA AND
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 154 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TODAY, CREATING
ANYWHERE FROM SCT TO OVC SKYCON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, PROVIDED ANY CU/SHOWERS GET DEEP ENOUGH.
CLOUDS CLEAR AFTER SUNSET, AND SOME FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST WI AND IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
TODAY AND EASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD EASE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AND A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY AFTER DAWN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE. WINDS THEN EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2
INCHES SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PULLS EAST SATURDAY AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS WEEKEND. SOME GALE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON SUNDAY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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