366
FXUS63 KMKX 281954
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN RIVER
VALLEYS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE (MARGINAL
RISK, 1 OUT OF 5), ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- PERIODS OF ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-CRITERIA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR ZONES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON
SUNDAY FOR THE SAME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW 60S AND PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TO
PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COLUMN AND MUCAPE BELOW 200 J/KG
WILL KEEP THE LIGHTNING THREAT MINIMAL. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON IF A BREAK IN CLOUDS
OCCURS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, A 30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING MID-
LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-35%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, WAA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS UPPER LEVEL WAA DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF INTO MIDDAY. CAPE RE-ENTERS THE
FORECAST (1500-2000 J/KG) INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CAPPING INVERSION
MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH STORMS TENDING TO FORM
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ITSELF IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO KEPT NBM POPS OF 15-35% THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF
THE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET NOSES
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) TO
EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. ANY CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN EASTERN IOWA WOULD BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS RIDGE-RIDER COMPLEXES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE, BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION UNTIL THE TIMEFRAME GETS CLOSER.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FT
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS AND A SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
(25,000 FT) MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES TO AROUND
5000 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MADISON WESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCH WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 29.6 INCHES IN THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REST OF THE LAKE AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY. OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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