012
FXUS63 KMKX 290147
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
- BECOMING VERY WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY AND PERSISTING MUCH OF
THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG
AT TIMES, FOR THE NEW WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-CRITERIA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY ALSO BE NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED 847 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS SRN WI TNT. LGT SLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT PLAINS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
FOR SATURDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT WILL
ROUND THE EWD MOVING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WI FROM LATE
SAT AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WELL ORGANIZED 700 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SATURATION FOR SHOWERS. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR, INHIBITING MOST STORM
DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES OF 60-80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO MADISON TO MEQUON BUT
STILL 40-50 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY SAT EVENING BUT A SWLY 850
MB JET AROUND 35 KTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY FROM CENTRAL WI INTO SRN
WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES OF 40-60 PERCENT OVER ERN WI WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARRIVE. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETAE ADVECTION
WILL STILL SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN AM, BUT MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL THEN REDUCE OR COMPLETELY INHIBIT SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR A TIME SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT
ON SAT, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NT AND SUN WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70F FOR SUN AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW 60S AND PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TO
PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COLUMN AND MUCAPE BELOW 200 J/KG
WILL KEEP THE LIGHTNING THREAT MINIMAL. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON IF A BREAK IN CLOUDS
OCCURS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, A 30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING MID-
LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-35%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, WAA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS UPPER LEVEL WAA DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF INTO MIDDAY. CAPE RE-ENTERS THE
FORECAST (1500-2000 J/KG) INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CAPPING INVERSION
MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH STORMS TENDING TO FORM
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ITSELF IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO KEPT NBM POPS OF 15-35% THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF
THE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET NOSES
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) TO
EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. ANY CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN EASTERN IOWA WOULD BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS RIDGE-RIDER COMPLEXES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE, BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION UNTIL THE TIMEFRAME GETS CLOSER.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 847 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TNT-SAT NT, BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CIGS OF 5-8 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH LOCAL CIGS OF
3.5-5.0 KFT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCH WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 29.6 INCHES IN THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REST OF THE LAKE AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY. OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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