210
FXUS63 KMKX 300339
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS & STORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE LOW, THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1040 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: A FORECAST MARKED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY &
CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PLACE
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SQUARELY WITHIN A PULL OF DEEP WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, WITH BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING HEAT & HUMIDITY, THOUGH AN ABSENCE OF LARGE-
SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE &
THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF STORM FORMATION. CURRENTLY-FAVORED TIME
PERIODS FOR STORMS ARE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (~MIDNIGHT &
LATER) TONIGHT & SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON (~11 AM - 5 PM) ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY IN ANY ACTIVITY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IF PLANNING TO BE
OUTDOORS.
REST OF TONIGHT: HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (~15-40%)
PRECIP PROBABILITIES AS AS AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET, WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION & AFFILIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE BEEN MONITORING A BROKEN ARC OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM LA CROSSE TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
WHICH IS PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN 850-700 MB THERMAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT THIS WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH 1 AM AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE NORTH AND EAST. WILL THEN BE MONITORING FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL COVERAGE MOVING
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET & AFFILIATED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT REACH THEIR OVERNIGHT MAXIMA. HOW SUCCESSFUL THESE MECHANISMS
WILL BE IN GENERATING ADDITIONAL STORMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING BETWEEN 850-700 MB THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS EVIDENCED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN, ILX,
AND MPX, THESE INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
CIN, EVEN TO PARCELS BEING LIFTED FROM THE LLJ (~925-850 MB) LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE THUS HELP PRECIP PROBABILITIES TO A MAX OF
40% THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS BEING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE 850-700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH COOLER. APART FROM BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS IN ANY ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY: WILL BE WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MID-
DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
TRIES TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SAID AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS CAN BE TRACED TO THE ARC OF STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS.
ASSUMING A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, CRUDE TIMING
ESTIMATES BRING THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BETWEEN ~11 AM - 5 PM SUNDAY, WHICH HAS BECOME A PREFERRED TIME
PERIOD FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARRIVING SUITE OF 00Z CAM
GUIDANCE. HAVE THUS TRENDED ~20-45% PRECIP PROBABILITIES TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME IN THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, THOUGH THEY
SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS LOW. CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL, THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LLJ-AFFILIATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT REGIONALLY. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, VERY WARM 850-700 MB
TEMPERATURES & AFFILIATED INHIBITION LEAVE THE EAST-WEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS IN QUESTION, WITH THE BEST OVERALL STORM CHANCES LIKELY TO
FOCUS WHERE THE LLJ MEETS MODESTLY COOLER VALUES. CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE (~25-50%) PRECIP PROBS AREAWIDE
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS AND ADJUSTING
AS NECESSARY.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A WARM, HUMID, AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
UPCOMING WEEK, FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD OF A
STATIONARY/COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. WITH THE
FRONT PRESENT THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WEAK WAVES PROPAGATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MIDWEEK AS BETTER SHEAR OVERLAPS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPS MAY "COOL" LATE-WEEK
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA, BUT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE DEPARTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH A LULL
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL FILL-IN OF ACTIVITY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE EVENING, WITH PRECIP MOVING WEST TO EAST INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHETHER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO
THE PREDAWN HOURS OR MOVES ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL BE ADJUSTING NEAR-TERM PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS
GIVEN ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS & LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, CAUSING
SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AND A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION.
QUIGLEY/CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING, WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE LAKE, AND THE
PRESENCE OF A JET ALOFT MAY CAUSE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLIES THEN REMAIN INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY TAKING HOLD.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
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