923
FXUS63 KMKX 032026
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH TONIGHT'S ROUND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
WE HAVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS (GREATER THAN 72F)
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO WATERTOWN TO MENOMONEE FALLS,
AND A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS NORTH OF THERE (DEWPOINTS
67-72 AND LIGHTER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS). THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING, DESPITE THE MESO MODEL FORECAST REFLECTIVITY
FIELD SHOWING THAT AREA CLEAR.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
LIKELY NOSE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN WI AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WI (BETWEEN SHEBOYGAN AND GREEN BAY).
THIS WILL BE OUR AREA TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM, AND A FEW COULD BE STRONG. THIS
WOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS
(DOWNBURSTS) AND HAIL WITH MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR. THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND COULD CLIP EAST
CENTRAL WI INCLUDING FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
THE STORMS THAT JUST DEVELOPED AND TRACKED THROUGH GRAND FORKS,
ND THIS AFTERNOON ARE WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR OUR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES. THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE IN CENTRAL WI AROUND 1 AM (THEY MAY CATCH UP OR MERGE
WITH THE LLJ STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WI). THE 18Z HRRR IS NOW
TRACKING THIS LINE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NOT
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WI. THIS MIGHT BE PICKING UP ON A
LLJ AND CAPE GRADIENT THAT IS FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE 06Z MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON.
IF THIS LINE OF STORMS TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT, IT
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 8 OR 9 AM FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE STORM MOTION WILL SLOW DOWN
TOWARD MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY TWO
INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A LARGER CONCERN.
IF THE LINE MISSES US, THEN A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE
ONE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (WHICH THE HRRR IS SHOWING). TIMING OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE MORNING STORMS AND CLOUDS CLEAR. IF THERE IS AMPLE
TIME WITH SUNNY SKIES, THEN THERE IS A HIGHER RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH HAIL AND TORNADO A MORE ISOLATED THREAT.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GET PUSHED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS INTO
MN AND A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
(SIMILAR LOCATION AS A LAKE BREEZE) MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING
SATURDAY SO WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS.
WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI ON
SUNDAY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHUNTED TO OUR WEST, WE HAVE A
DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE LOWER
80S WEST ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY AS THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI AND BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SEE THE MAIN DISCUSSION SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITES IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE FROM DAY TO DAY, GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS OVER HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER WEEK STORMS,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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