057
FXUS63 KMKX 050018
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
718 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHERN WI. AFTERWARD,
GRADUAL LESSENING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE TREND
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 715 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WHAT LITTLE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF A LLJ TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS. THUS, WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AS DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY:
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER NE IA AND SW WI DUE TO
PERSISTENT, ALBEIT WEAKENING, LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION, BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY. THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN IL AND THEN NWWD INTO
NE IA INTO SW WI. DESPITE SLY WINDS RETURNING ALONG WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS, DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH OF A RECOVERY
TO ELIMINATE THE MLCIN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT FOR MUCH
OF SRN WI, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW WI. ANY STORMS THAT
INTENSIFY OVER NE IA AND SW WI WOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD BE STRONG
OR SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WI SHIFTS SWD IN RESPONSE TO A SFC
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH ONTARIO. WEAK PVA WILL ALSO DRIFT
INTO SRN AND CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS TNT. THERE ARE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED STORMS.
HOWEVER, MUCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG AND MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IF STRONG CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS REALIZED. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION GIVEN WEAK FORCING WITHIN A
HIGH MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW AND WEAK FRONT, WILL BE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WHICH WILL LAST WELL INTO SAT AM. DENSE FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
ONTARIO WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SAT
AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR SUN NT-MON. THUS
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
FOR TUE-WED A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD
ACROSS FAR SRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SLY WINDS AND
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TUE-WED. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TUE NT OR WED AM WITH 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THU-FRI.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 715 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATER THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTING LOWER VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOW-LYING TERMINALS THAT MAY SEE POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN EXPECT THESE LOWER
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND WILL INFLUENCE THE
PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN WI MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM
ONTARIO, MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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