321
FXUS63 KMKX 080002 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WARMER, MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A FEW
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING
MCS THAT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST CAMS AND ADJUST THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACCORDINGLY. AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP BRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS THROUGH,
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (60 TO 80 PERCENT) DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS THE STRONGEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH POOR
LAPSE RATES AND VERY TALL AND SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPE. AT THIS
TIME, NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH
ANY STORMS COULD STILL BRING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY DOWNBURSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD, SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
WITH SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES, AS INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET. THINK WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TNT, THEN FLATTEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON TUE. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION CAN
BE EXPECTED WHILE PWATS RISE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES LATE ON TUE. THE
CAMS SUGGEST A WEAKENING MCS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
FROM WRN WI IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO MOVE INTO SE WI IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MID LEVEL SATURATION
AND HIGH BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. 40-60% CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ON TUE MAINLY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MKE METRO AREA, INCLUDING THE MADISON AREA.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO SRN WI TUE NT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO OR HUDSON BAY. MUCAPE WILL STILL REMAIN
LIMITED BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OF 60-90%, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING
INTO WED AM. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OVER IA WHERE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL STALL
WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THEN MOVING EAST INTO NRN IL AND
POSSIBLY SRN WI. OVERALL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS
VERY LOW WITH POSSIBLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING POTENTIAL, ALBEIT STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY A BROAD SFC
RIDGE ON THU. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS ON THU BUT THE
AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR MANY CLOUDS OR RAIN. SLY WINDS AND WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION WILL RETURN FOR FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH WILL PASS FRI NT. THERE ARE 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FRI NT THEN 20-30 PERCENT SAT AM WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN POSSIBLE SUN NT INTO MON
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE 40-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LOWER
GRADUALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTH TUESDAY, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE FOR TERMINALS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THIS TIME
AT THE MADISON AND JANESVILLE TERMINALS. WENT DRY FOR NOW UNTIL
HIGHER CONFIDENCE CAN BE FOUND. AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAY SEE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIME, ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 145 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF. AS LOW
PRESSURE ENTERS THE HUDSON BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND
INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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