397
FXUS63 KMKX 150452
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PORT WASHINGTON
TO JANESVILLE.
- GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN
WI WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FROM THE SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES
SOUTH TO KENOSHA COUNTY BEACHES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES OF 4-9 FT.
- MIDWEEK SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS FROM NE IA
TO CENTRAL WI IS EXPECTED TO LEAN OVER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE AXIS OF THE SWLY
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH SFC-925 MB
MOISTURE CONTENT. ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BUT
WITH A DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER INTO SE WI AND NRN IL TOWARD 12Z
TUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND. IT STILL APPEARS THE VEERING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN ITS WAKE AND LAST TOWARD MID TO LATE TUE AM. OVERALL THOUGH,
BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN DRY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, GREATEST WELL WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA.
THE WEAKENING AND SLOWING TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS TUE
AFTERNOON BUT THE LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND SOME CAPPING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY THEN. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL
OR SRN IL FOR TUE NT-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN OR CENTRAL
IL FOR WED NT-THU. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO LATE ON THU, THEN ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC FOR THU NT-FRI. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PRIOR FORECASTS. RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR
THE IL BORDER LATE WED NT.
FOR FRI-SUN, CYCLOGENESIS MAY ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.
NEVERTHELESS, 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR
LATE FRI NT-SAT. WITH LESSENING CHANCES INTO SUN-MON. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE AM.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM SW WI SEWD TO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUE, THEN
EXPAND INTO SE WI AFTER 12Z. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIT FAR SRN WI BY TUE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
MVFR CIGS FROM CENTRAL WI TOWARD NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUE NT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE GALES WILL
THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.3 INCHES TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TOWARD SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNTIL STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.
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