225
FXUS63 KMKX 172325
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND LIGHT MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HIGH SWIMMING RISK CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS & STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- OFF & ON LIGHTER RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO WI/IL BORDER. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. HAVE UPPED SHORT TERM
PRECIP PROBABILITIES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHERE WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER IS SUPPORTING LINGERING
SPRINKLE AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE BUILDING HIGH WILL STEADILY FLUSH
LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. DEPENDING
ON WIND SPEEDS & THE SPEED THAT CLEARING PROGRESSES, SOME FOG
COULD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PREDAWN. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
INTO THE EVENING AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
TONIGHT EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION A BIT MORE
AS THE HIGH IN AS THE HIGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA STRENGTHENS.
THIS SHOULD SHOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND THICKER LOW CLOUDS
TO THE SOUTH FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TOTAL
CLEARING BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING IN FRIDAY AND EXITING SATURDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WITH DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN, HIGH PWATS (>2
INCHES), SOME STRONG WAA FROM LLJ INFLUENCE, UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND FGEN. THE LATTER OF WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST IMPORTANT FOR WHERE WE COULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, ANY STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG NOR IS LIGHTNING EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT
OR WIDESPREAD. THUS, THE PRIMARY FOCUS FROM OUR END IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND MORE
SPECIFICALLY, ANY AREA THAT MAY RECEIVE TRAINING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. SOME MODELS SHOW A FOCUSED
BAND OF PRECIP BEING THE MAIN ISSUE WHERE OTHERS SHOW JUST A
BLOB OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THE
TRAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORM OF A BAND AS THIS
LIKELY BRINGS THE HIGHEST END OUTCOME FOR RAIN TOTALS. IN
GENERAL EXPECT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH AND A HIGHER
END OUTCOME POSSIBLE THAT COULD TAP INTO THE 4-6 INCH RANGE
WITH THAT (IF IT OCCURS AT ALL) MORE LIKELY IN A VERY LOCALIZED
REGION.
THERE WILL BE CONCERNS FOR AREAL FLOODING AND EVEN SOME MINOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
IT FALLS, HOW LONG AND WHERE. THATS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS EVENT AS WE HAVE TRACKED THIS EVENT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THUS IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD BE IN THE CROSSHAIRS WHILE
CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA STILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HIGH END RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A
GREAT PORTRAYAL OF THIS IS WHAT WE SEE IN THE HREF PMM OR LPMM
FOR 24 HOUR PRECIP WHICH SHOWS 2 SEPARATE AREAS OF HIGH END
RAINFALL BUT IN REALITY WE WOULD ONLY REALLY BE EXPECTING 1 BAND
LOCATED ACROSS PART OF SOUTHERN WI, ASSUMING WE GET A MAJOR BAND
TO BEGIN WITH AS THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCORDING TO MODELS
WILL BE LARGELY FALLING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN PUSHING OUT SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MORE SO LINGERING PRECIP INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
MORE UNCERTAINTY CLIMBS INTO THE FORECAST BEYOND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY RAIN EVENT AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL US AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IN ADDITION, WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING LINE UP WITH RESPECT TO THOSE INTERACTIONS
AND THE FACT THAT WE WILL BE IN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT MAKES
THINGS VERY UNCERTAIN. MODELS GENERALLY PORTRAY THAT SAME
PICTURE AS WELL WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THE PRECIP MAY
LINE UP. LATEST TRENDS DO SUGGEST PRECIP MAY SAG FURTHER SOUTH
WITH PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE WEAK STORMS MONDAY AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE LACKING RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY ULTIMATELY
IMPACT HOW MUCH RAIN WE ACTUALLY SEE. WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL
BRING RAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS OVERALL
AND THUS WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED, WIDESPREAD
LIGHTNING IS NOT.
INTO TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE
AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH BUT
AFTER THAT WE TREND DRIER WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLIER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST COMES BUILT IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
PORTION BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
THE AREA OVERALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL SUPPORT SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING THROUGH
ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER THE HIGH AND ASSUMED LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR PREVENTS MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILS LATE THIS EVENING AT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TERMINALS, WITH GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH
AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT VFR CATEGORIES TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCTION-FREE BY PREDAWN. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT MID-UPPER CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECTING GENERALLY BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA & LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS COULD
BE GUSTY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT THE LAKE
MICHIGAN TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD SHRA & EMBEDDED CB WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INITIALLY ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT
MSN, JVL, AS WELL AS AT THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PERIOD AT MKE.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ACTIVITY TO STAY WEST OF OTHER
FIELDS THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE CURRENT 24 HOUR PERIOD,
THOUGH MENTIONS WILL BECOME NECESSARY IN THE COMING 06Z UPDATE.
MAY ALSO MOVE TO TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE 06Z
UPDATE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. EXPECTING CIG & VIS
REDUCTIONS TO BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH
PRECIPITATION.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH HALF, WILL
BECOME A STEADY AND MODEST EAST NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE ENTIRE
LAKE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF 30.4 INCH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO.
29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING AND PASSING LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 AM FRIDAY
TO 2 PM FRIDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM
FRIDAY.
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