755
FXUS63 KMKX 191928
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING IMPACTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SWIMMING RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY AT ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES, AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
AFTERNOON SHOWERS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SRN WI AS A MCV AND MODEST
WAA AND FGEN IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL PRIMARILY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INSTABILITY TRIES TO WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE WE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOR A TIME. THIS WAS THOUGHT TO
POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME SEVERE RISK BUT GIVEN THE LOWERED TRENDS
IN MUCAPE (300-600J/KG) AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WE WILL BE
CLOUDY WAS SUGGESTIVE THAT ANY STORMS MAY LARGELY BE ELEVATED
WITH LITTLE TO NO MLCAPE.
COLD POOLING FROM THOSE STORMS AND/OR JUST THE GENERAL MODEL
TRENDS OF THE FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH SUGGEST THIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE CWA IN LARGE PART BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING. AS
THIS SHIFTS OUT, SO WILL OUR STORM RISK AND IN LARGE PART OUR
PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT A SLIGHT SHIFT
NORTH OR SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION WITH BRING A LONGER PERIOD
OF PRECIP AND STORM POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT
MODELS ARE LARGELY CONSISTENT, KEEPING PRECIP/STORMS LATER
TONIGHT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CAMS SUGGEST MOST OF POTENTIAL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BEING
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT A FEW MODELS STILL HAVE THIS
ACTIVITY IN FAR SOUTHERN WI BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND THUS
SOME OF THE RISKS STILL REMAIN. WE HAVE ELECTED TO EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 2 TIERS OF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY.
INTO SUNDAY, THINGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUIETER. OTHER THAN SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OUT IN THE MORNING THE SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO PUSH ESE WITH THE HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NUDGING A BIT
MORE INTO THE REGION SHOVING PRECIP POTENTIAL SOUTH. IN FACT, WE
MAY ALSO LOSE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN LARGE PART ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH FURTHER LENDS TO THE IDEA OF A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN A PEEK AT SOME SUNSHINE TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
OTHERWISE, BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ONSHORE
WINDS BRINGING WAVES TO 6-10 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS SUNDAY.
WHILE, WINDS ARE LIGHTER RIGHT NOW WITH WAVES AROUND 4 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE BUT AT WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
WAVES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE MAKING FOR VERY DANGEROUS NEARSHORE
CONDITIONS.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC THROUGH WED BRINGING PERSISTENT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO
SRN WI. UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK WITH THE SFC HIGH, WHILE A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS ACROSS WI AND IL FROM MON NT-WED. THE TRACK OF THE
INDIVIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL DETERMINE
THE LOCATIONS OF THE SHOWERS, AND WHETHER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CAN
BE OVERCOME. AT THIS TIME RAIN CHANCES ARE RANGING FROM DRY OVER
EAST CENTRAL WI TO 40-50 PERCENT CHANCES OVER SW WI AND FAR SRN
WI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BUT WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
70F.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAJOR TAF CONCERN WILL BE THE
LIFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN
PUSHING OUT SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION WITH RAIN, COMES VSBYS
DEGRADATION, AND SOME FOG THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
THOUGH MOSTLY ON THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH
GALE FORCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER WESTERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL STEADILY TAPER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
FLOOD WATCH...WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
TUESDAY.
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