930
FXUS63 KMKX 201751
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WI/IL
BORDER.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY AT ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES, AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, WINDING DOWN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO MONDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THOUGH, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM MADISON WESTWARD, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS AND
EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY KEEP CONDITONS DRY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, WINDING DOWN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO MONDAY BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS MAY RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW THOUGH, WITH IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MADISON
WESTWARD TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES OVER WESTERN ONTARIO TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY, REACHING QUEBEC BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL THEN LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MID-WEEK, WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30.7 INCHES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING EAST AND REMAINING GUSTY
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR TODAY
INTO MONDAY, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BUILDING
WAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN
LINGER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER EAST.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
TUESDAY.
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