908
FXUS63 KMKX 211152 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
652 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TODAY INTO TUESDAY MAY OCCUR IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THERE MAY BE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES THAT OCCUR AT TIMES IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONE AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL CVA IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH A MORE ORGANIZED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW EXPECTED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY INTO TUESDAY
AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH DAY. LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES, WITH PERSISTENT
GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 12 FEET. STAY
OUT OF THE WATER, AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND
BREAKWALLS.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER/JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY SEASONAL WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S, WHILE NIGHTLY LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S. ANY CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT NONETHELESS
WILL SEE FALL-LIKE LOWS TO START THE WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES, THE +1030MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST LOOKS TO BRING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE
AREA. HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO SEE A SIGNAL ON THE 00Z MODELS OF
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. WHILE THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL COMPETE WITH EACH OTHER, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEEING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PAIR WITH PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO BE ENOUGH TO SPUR
SPORADIC SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WI/IL
BORDER WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MOST LIKELY. OVERALL IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT, ANY ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE (>0.01
INCH), BUT COULD STILL BRING A PERIOD OF DAMP, MISTY, AND DREARY
CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TREKS EAST, THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE TAKES A
FIRMER HOLD OVER THE AREA.
LASTLY WITH THE PERSISTING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PAST
AND UPCOMING DAYS, WAVES UP TO 4-9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS RESULTING IN HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS
FOR ALL SOUTHERN WI BEACHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO LESSEN. WHILE HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY, THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THERE MAY BE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES THAT OCCUR AT TIMES IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY,
INCLUDING MADISON, JANESVILLE AND KENOSHA. FOR NOW, LEFT OUT
MENTION IN TAFS AS VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED MUCH BY
THEM.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL OR SO SHOULD
LINGER TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING
OUT LATER IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN
LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30.7 INCHES. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TODAY,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
DUE TO PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW, WAVES CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WINDS THEN LOOK TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
LAKE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, FOR
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page