650
FXUS63 KMKX 221012 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
512 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SOME SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 512 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL CVA IS HELPING BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO 13Z IN THIS AREA, BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OR MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL, WITH SOME SHOWERS WEST OF FOND DU
LAC AND MILWAUKEE DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, SO MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST INTO THIS MORNING.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS CHANCES THROUGH
EARLY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS REGION. STILL LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT GIVEN HOW THE SHOWERS LAST EVENING
OVER PERFORMED, CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE COMING OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE PERSISTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY
DIMINISHING THESE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AS DRIER AIRMASS AND
GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOOKING AT DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND NIGHTLY LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LESS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL EVEN FURTHER AND COULD SEE POCKETS OF LOWS
NEARING 40F FOR INLAND CENTRAL WI LOCATIONS.
LASTLY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING TO THE NORTHEAST,
PERSISTING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUES TO BRING WAVES OF 4-7 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS, HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
ALL SOUTHERN WI BEACHES, BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN IMPROVING SWIM
RISK CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOR ALL SOUTHERN WI BEACHES. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BRING A DRIER PATTERN, BUT ALSO
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS EVEN A POTENTIAL (20-40% PER LREF MEMBERS) TO
SEE HIGH TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 70S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 512 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO
13Z IN THIS AREA, BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OR MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS MAY AFFECT JANESVILLE AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED TO 3 TO 4 MILES AT TIMES IN THE SHOWERS.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT OTHER TERMINALS INTO THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, SO MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST INTO THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 3500 TO 6500 FOOT AGL RANGE
INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 2500 FOOT AGL VALUES AT TIMES IN
THE RAIN AREAS AND FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MAY SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES INTO THIS MORNING AS WELL, WITH
CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS MAY BE
IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FOOT AGL RANGE IN THESE AREAS.
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BECOMING
GUSTY BY MIDDLE MORNING AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER/JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL KEEPING BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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