524
FXUS63 KMKX 231821
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
AN EAST TO WEST SFC RIDGE FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ONTARIO WILL
REORIENT MORE NORTH TO SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY TO MI BY FRIDAY.
UNTIL FRIDAY, SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. THUS INTERMITTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS
HIGH ENOUGH WITHIN AN AIRMASS OF MINOR LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE, AND OVER THE LAND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION,
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR THU NT INTO FRI AM. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A DRIER ELY FLOW WILL
THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER MI. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO RUN THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON AM. DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY, AN ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS MON NT-TUE AND WITH SOME DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TUE NT OR WED
AM. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT CHANCE) ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUE NT, LINGERING INTO WED.
HIGH TEMPS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER SE WI THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-
BKN035 CLOUDS TNT THROUGH THU BUT WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE PERIOD AS SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN EAST TO WEST HIGH PRESSURE AREA AROUND 30.6 INCHES WILL REMAIN
FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEST EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, THEN BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH REORIENTS FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO JAMES BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 PM THU FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE A BIT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
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