644
FXUS63 KMKX 250019
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
719 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 715 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A STEADY, LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS
LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
DEWPOINTS AND GENERALLY PREVENT SHOWERS ALONG A RIDGE OF MID-
LEVEL WAA FROM MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES,
EXPECTING THE RIDGE OF WAA TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (15-30% COVERAGE) TO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS EASTERLY WINDS RETURN. AFTER
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, ESPECIALLY IN LOW- LYING
AREAS.
FRIDAY, EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD
THE DEWPOINT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES EACH
DAY AND LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE PLAINS PHASE TO
CREATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW 70S. AS LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THIS NEW AIRMASS, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL RETURNS TO THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW REMAINS, AND THEREFORE TOO EARLY TO TELL ANY SEVERITY OF
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST. WAA
LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE AREA.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (10-35% COVERAGE)
EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30 GROUPS IN
THE MSN AND JVL TAFS AT THIS TIME, EXCLUDED IT FROM TAFS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE DRY AIR OUGHT TO ERODE MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT TRAVELS EAST TO THE SHORELINE.
CLOUDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 3,500 AND
4,500 FT, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY LOWER PATCHES (MVFR) CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TERMINALS WELL WEST OF MADISON COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENT OF
OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE / RAIN.
FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A LIGHT ESE BREEZE WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 3,500 AND 5,000 FT. DRY WEATHER
AND CONTINUED VFR EXPECTED.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 30.4
INCHES TONIGHT, LEADING TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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