086
FXUS63 KMKX 260002
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT
UPDATE
ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
WE'RE BEGINNING TO REVIEW THE 18Z INTERIM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AT FIRST GLANCE, THE GRADUAL
RAMP-UP IN PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
STAY THE SAME, AS DO THE WIDESPREAD 50-65% RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS
A DIFFICULT FORECAST, WITH BOTH CUTOFF AND OPEN-WAVE SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EVIDENT IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MIDWEST REGION AS A WHOLE IS IN FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK IN EITHER SCENARIO, BUT WHETHER OR NOT
THAT SPECIFICALLY INCLUDES SOUTHERN WI (OR SETS UP FURTHER
SOUTH) IS TO BE DETERMINED.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1151 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO
THE EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT ARRIVES THOUGH, SO THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. A COUPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING
LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE EAST SAT NIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY THINKING
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1151 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 70. AS THE RIDGE HEADS EASTWARD TUESDAY,
THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5" BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT WILL
THEN BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE MIXED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED
AFTER THE TUE/TUE NIGHT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH
MORE SHOWER CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END FOR PRECIP
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THAT
FACT THAT THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
DRY AND VFR WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
LIGHT EAST BREEZE. SOME LINGERING 4,000 FT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
NORTHWEST OF MSN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT WESTWARD THIS EVENING,
LEAVING SOME OCCASIONAL 12,000 FT AND +25,000 FT CLOUDS AS THE
ONLY CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. VERY LOW
CHANCES (10-15%) FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WEST OF A MONROE
TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1151 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO 30.1 INCHES. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS THEN TAKE OVER THIS
EVENING, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page