615
FXUS63 KMKX 280024 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
724 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, COOLING DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED 723 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY IN DODGE, JEFFERSON
AND ROCK COUNTIES AGAIN. THIS IS DUE TO SOME CLEARING OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS RIGHT AROUND SUNSET AND A QUICK DROP IN THE
TEMPERATURES.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
LATEST MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF HIGHER 850-700 MB MOISTURE
DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON TOP OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
IN PLACE. THUS THINK TEMPS WON'T FALL AS FAR TONIGHT AS THE LAST
COUPLE NIGHTS AND THE FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. THAT SAID, ANY POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWING TREND WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE THIS WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY PER THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEARLY THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0" ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL NOT SEEING
MUCH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE LOWER END, SO KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
IS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SUN UNDER THE HIGH.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 723 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST PLACES THROUGH MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LIKELY ON
MONDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT, THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY AREAS OF
CLEARING GIVEN THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY IN DODGE, JEFFERSON
AND ROCK COUNTIES.
DDV/CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 148 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE EARLY THIS WEEK.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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