639
FXUS63 KMKX 291040
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
540 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED
DENSE POCKETS ARE EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, COOLING DOWN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 534 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS MAY BE DENSE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. RAIN
MOVES IN TONIGHT, WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE USUAL LOW SPOTS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
VISIBILITIES AT KENOSHA AND SHEBOYGAN AIRPORTS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND ALREADY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
(TUESDAY) AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK
FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
USHER SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RUN INTO DRY AIR, BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE LATER TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS DUE TO
925-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER AND LOWER JETS WILL TAKE ON MORE
OF A WEST-EAST FLOW WITH THE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE LATEST GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24
HRS AND NOW LINE IT UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WPC HAS OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WED-WED NT AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (98TH
PERCENTILE).
THE RAIN WED INTO THU LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES
(REFS, HREF) ARE SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE
OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF THE MORE ROBUST BLOBS OF
RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE EVENT TO BEGIN. SIMILARLY, THE
SURFACE FRONT NEEDS TO WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
TO PUSH IT SOUTH OF SOUTHERN WI. THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHERN WI AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 539 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCALIZED DENSE
POCKETS. THE LOWEST VIS APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST WI AT KENW
AND KBUU AT THIS TIME. ONCE FOG CLEARS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AMID LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND RAIN
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER LAKE HURON TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG, DENSE POSSIBLE, OVER THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT IT TO DIMINISH BY
MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FAST-MOVING TROUGH SHOULD CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY BUT THE AMPLITUDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE WIND SPEED.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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