537
FXUS63 KMKX 301948
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS MAY
OCCUR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS
BORDER. RISES IN RIVERS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.
STAY OUT OF THE WATER DURING THIS PERIOD AND AWAY FROM
DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH
LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG IN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, UNTIL
THE NEXT ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. CAMS SUGGEST THIS ARRIVAL WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING HOURS,
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE REORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THE 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PROVIDING
SOME ADDED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEP AND SATURATED
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.80 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE (250 TO 350 J/KG) MAY
DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, HIGHEST TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER
AREAS.
GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION NATURE OF THE RAIN, AND THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE IMPACTS BEING SOME RIVER RISES AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS AS WELL.
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE SMALL INTO THURSDAY, WITH
LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT SHOULD BRING COOLER LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH SWIM RISK REMAINS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BRING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET IN THESE AREAS. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER, AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND
BREAKWALLS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY
PUSH INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY, IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT SWINGS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH
IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN TO AROUND 40
FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
FOR SATURDAY, A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL GIVE US A WIND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
DEPARTING HIGH, AND SOME INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S, ALTHOUGH COOLER BY LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, DUE TO LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
EXPECT SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF COOLER NIGHTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 EACH
NIGHT, AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP.
WE WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AROUND 70. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF, AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS
DIFFERENCE AS WELL. IF THE TROUGH IS MORE AMPLIFIED, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS
LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG WITH 1 TO 4 MILE
VISIBILITY IN PARTS OF THE AREA, UNDER LOW CEILINGS OF 300 TO
800 FEET AGL AND MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE NEXT ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS ARRIVAL WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 300 TO
800 FOOT AGL RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 4
MILES LINGERING. SOME FOG MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AS WELL.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL VEER THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO ABOVE 3500 FEET
AGL AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VISIBILITY
SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO ABOVE 6 MILES.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON,
FOR WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO
THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.8 INCHES SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
VEER NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
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