063
FXUS63 KMKX 011901
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
201 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN GRADUALLY ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
MID-EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS & NUISANCE IMPACTS
(PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, MINOR RISES ON CREEKS/STREAMS) ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF PATCHY FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT & EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: REFLECTIVE OF SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, A BUSY SURFACE PATTERN PREVAILS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REGIONALLY. BENEATH THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A WEAK SURFACE
LOW HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE BURLINGTON, IOWA VICINITY. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW, WITH 1 PM OBSERVATIONS PLACING
THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN APPROXIMATE ROCHELLE, IL - WAUKEGAN, IL AXIS.
OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER NORTH/BENEATH THE
NORTHERN STREAM, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STEVENS POINT TO LA
CROSSE, AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
ACTING TO SHUT DOWN RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING A MODEST WARM UP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING: EXPECT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO GRADUALLY CONTRACT SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT. ANTICIPATING THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD & STEADIEST ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS ALONG & SOUTH OF I-94/US-18, WHERE AN OVERLAP OF
OVERRUNNING FGEN, MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL RESIDE. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS &
LOCALIZED/NUISANCE HYDRO IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, THOUGH
GENERAL EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT &
AFFILIATED DRY AIR PUSH WILL SHUNT ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING
POTENTIAL INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE THUS HELD OFF ON BRINGING ANY
FLOOD WATCHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE MID-DAY UPDATE,
BUT WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR AN ISOLATED FLOOD ADVISORY INTO
EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD, ANTICIPATE THAT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 DEGREES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DEPENDING
ON HOW COOL TEMPERATURES GET, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOW-
LYING INLAND AREAS. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BE SURE TO BRING ANY COLD-SENSITIVE
PLANTS INDOORS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME 10-15% PRECIP PROBS IN
THE MID-DAY UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HAZARDS IN ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: A PRONOUNCED AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH ATTENDANT CLEAR SKIES TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT COOLING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY & MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE DURING EACH TIME FRAME. THE
HIGH WILL VACATE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PASSING DISTURBANCE & FRONT, WITH HAZARDS APPEARING
UNLIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE & SURFACE FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: THE LONE (ALBEIT VERY SMALL) PRECIP
CHANCES OF THE PERIOD ENTER AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT. PRECIP PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
~10-20% RANGE, WHICH IS A TESTAMENT TO A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS & MARGINAL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. WITH THE VALUES APPEARING
REASONABLE GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITATIONS, HAVE THUS MAINTAINED NBM
PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE MID-DAY UPDATE. MODELING POINTS TOWARD
MARGINAL CAPE & PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, SUGGESTING LOW HAZARDS
POTENTIAL IN ANY PRECIP. WILL NEVERTHELESS MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS WIDESPREAD RA CONTINUES. GENERALLY SEEING THE
BULK OF MVFR & IFR REDUCTIONS FOCUSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA, WITH GREATER PREVALENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER
NORTHWEST. EXPECT RA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM, WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GRADUALLY CONTRACTING TOWARD SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
BY EARLY EVENING. DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASES IN VIS AND CIG READINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE NEAR-TERM
FORECASTS AT ALL TERMINALS TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT
TERM FORECAST TRENDS. DEBATED CARRYING PROB30 -RA GROUPS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEYOND THE CONCLUSION OF PREVAILING MENTIONS, BUT ULTIMATELY
REFRAINED GIVEN ONGOING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL MODIFY PREVAILING RA
GROUPS WHERE NECESSARY AS CONDITIONS DICTATE INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO SHUNT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MID-EVENING,
WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCOURING OUT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SHOWERS & A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING, BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED. 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING DECREASING & EVENTUALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
WINDS WILL TREND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT AS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
A DEEPER AREA OF 994 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE HUDSON
BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD, A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE UPWARD TRENDS AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD
DRAWS CLOSER. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF WIND POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 4 AM & 1 PM FRIDAY
FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR GIVEN THESE EXPECTATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD
DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
LONG-DURATION RAINFALL EVENT IS APPROACHING ITS CONCLUSION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STEADY TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH MID-EVENING, WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT THEREAFTER. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, THOUGH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, MINOR RISES
ON CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS, AND ISOLATED URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT ALONG THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL & A RESULTANT RISE TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO THIS
EVENING & UPGRADING TO A FLOOD WARNING IF/WHEN CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ646...4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.
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