362
FXUS63 KMKX 031152
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
652 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A CHILLY START TO THE DAY FOR MANY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. AREAS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN ARE FAIRING A BIT BETTER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
PATCHY FROST AND FOG REMAINS THIS MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AT TIMES WITH
SFC OBSERVING SYSTEMS CATCHING STRAY PATCHES FROM TIME TO TIME.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY NOW THAT THE SUN IS STARTING TO
RISE. QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN CONTINUES EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
DID BUMP UP THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIFT WILL
BE GOOD ALOFT AND ALONG THE FRONT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BIT
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESPITE THE LACKING MOISTURE. IF THINGS
STAY TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS COULD VIRGA. EITHER WAY THE
ADDITION OF 10-15% CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LARGELY NON
IMPACTFUL FOR MANY.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
TNT, REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SUN. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
VIA CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MIDDLE 40S, WITH PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS WELL AWAY
FROM LAKE MI. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIMIT GROUND FOG TO
OVER THE MARSHES.
L
SCATTERED TO SOMETIMES BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, CURRENTLY
OVER MN, WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND PORTIONS OF SRN
WI ON SAT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM SRN MN
THROUGH CENTRAL WI. DESPITE THE COOL START, SLY WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
A DEEPER AND MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH/COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO WRN ONTARIO AND MN BY 00Z SUN, THEN
ACROSS WI DURING THE NIGHT. DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS, LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE IN THE LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS FROM
09Z-15Z SUN AND SHOULD BE A DRY PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL
STILL REACH 65-70F WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TO INCREASE SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S FOR MON AM.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
NWLY FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL FOLLOW FOR MON- MON EVE
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO TRACK
FROM NRN MANITOBA ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THU.
BREEZY SSWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON TUE. A WEAK AND DECAYING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS ON WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH FRI,
POSSIBLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR SOME DAYS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY MID MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING IN A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10-15%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE FOR TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
30.3 INCH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN, WHILE MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVER
THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL THEN TREND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS
29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT AS 30.2
INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
A DEEPER AREA OF 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. A FEW GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE-FORCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN
WATERS. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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