054
FXUS63 KMKX 032352
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
652 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD CENTRAL WI
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND 30-40 PERCENT FROM
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE.
- PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NARROW N-S LINES OF HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS OVER SE MN AND NE
IA WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THESE BANDS OF LIFT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PVA, AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS DRY AND CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN ARE 50-60 PERCENT TOWARD CENTRAL WI AND 30-40
PERCENT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE, LESS TO THE SOUTH.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM 09Z-14Z WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, BUT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL TAKE HOLD SUN NT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PULLING THROUGH. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH DECENT
MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE (WITH SOME
WAA) TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SPECIFICALLY LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS BETTER FURTHER NORTH
AND THUS CHANCES ARE BEST IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
TOWARD CENTRAL WI WITH LESSENING CHANCES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH.
TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT LEAST
SEEING SOME PRECIP THOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND THUS BRIEF/TRANSIENT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OUT BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WILL BE NUDGING IN WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS
THE CWA. WHILE THE REGION ALOFT WOULD APPEAR PRIMED FOR
SHORTWAVES, MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING THINGS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK VERY QUIET WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING FAIRLY MERIDIONAL WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND
WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST. IT REMAINS VERY STAGNANT PATTERN
OVERALL. WHILE THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO SOME
ACTIVITY ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTMENT, MODELS KEEPING
THINGS LARGELY QUIET. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THIS FRONT (AT THIS
TIME) LOOKS QUIET DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. THE FRONT MAY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORCING WILL BE LIMITED IN
ADDITION TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THEN INTO FRIDAY
IS WHERE WE SEE INCREASED MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH A FEW MODELS
POINTING TOWARD SOME INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ATTACHED TO
A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO EXTEND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. IN ANY CASE IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR
THOUGH CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN SLIM. WE WILL BE MONITORING A
POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN SPOTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TNT-SUN NT. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARD
CENTRAL WI. A FEW030-040 CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
30.3 INCH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT
STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAKE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES TO THE WEST IMPINGES ON THE THE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL THEN TREND SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AS 29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEST- NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT
AS 30.2 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.
A DEEPER AREA OF 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. A FEW GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE-FORCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN
WATERS. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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