512
FXUS63 KMKX 041100
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
600 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE NEW WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MICHIGAN. SO THERE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYMORE RAIN HERE, BUT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS IT PASSES. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL SO THIS SHOULDN'T
IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH, BUT IT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT TO BE JUST LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST POTENTIAL. SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO),
THESE PATCHY FROST CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL BE MOSTLY CONTAINED
TO LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE FAR NORTHERN
CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS IS A BORDERLINE CASE
FOR PATCHY FROST, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TRIGGER ANY HEADLINES
UNLESS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE
THERE'S NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
NARROW N-S LINES OF HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT SE WI BY 06Z WITH A CLEARING TREND AFTERWARD. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI. THE
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE FROM 09Z-14Z. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON SUN. DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL TAKE HOLD SUN NT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
NWLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS, WILL
PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEK. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL FOLLOW
FOR MON-MON EVE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO TRACK FROM NRN MANITOBA ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THU. BREEZY SSWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ON TUE. A WEAK AND
DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS LATE TUE NT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR FRI NT-SAT.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 3-5 KFT. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS (17-24MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A TIME THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY BY
MID DAY MONDAY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL DEEPEN TO 29.4 INCHES AS IT APPROACHES JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE. LESSENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT AS 30.2 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A DEEPER AREA OF 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. A FEW GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE-FORCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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