387
FXUS63 KMKX 051937
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, NORTH OF A PORT
WASHINGTON WI TO WHITEHALL MI LINE. SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 40
KNOTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 230 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TONIGHT, AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA, SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. AS WAA SLOWLY CRANKS UP LATE TONIGHT, WE EXPECT
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WI, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED
RAINSHOWERS (5-15% CHANCES) MAY CLIP OUR REGION, MAINLY EAST-
CENTRAL WI. THE SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD REDUCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND THE GRADUALLY TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OUGHT TO PREVENT SURFACE WINDS FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING. AS SUCH, THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST IN LOW-LYING
MARSHY AREAS HAS DECREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST ITERATION,
AND IS NO LONGER PERCEIVED TO BE A THREAT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
EXPECTED.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS MIDDAY, ACHIEVING GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN TODAY
DUE TO THE WAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A 10 MPH NW BREEZE (GUSTS TO 20 MPH) AND
FEWER CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND CAA). HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED, MAKING WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
WITH A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH LINGERS IN THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND IF SUBSIDENCE
IS STRONG ENOUGH / SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH, WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOW-LYING
AREAS. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EAST FROM THE
REGION.
PREDICTABILITY DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEN ONWARDS, WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFTING TO ALLOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND (DEPENDING ON PHASING) SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. MOST MODELS LEAVE THE WEEKEND PREDOMINANTLY
DRY, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER (15-40%) PRECIP CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND
ONWARDS ON ACCOUNT OF SOME FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS /
BAROCLINIC ZONES.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF IT. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
PASSING BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 7,000 TO
10,000 FT AGL, SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THEM
POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL WI (KFLD / KSBM) BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY, WITH 20-28 KNOT GUSTS.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EASTWARD. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTH INTO
TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE, NORTH OF A PORT
WASHINGTON WI TO WHITEHALL MI LINE, WITH SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40
KT EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM
TUESDAY.
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