961
FXUS63 KMKX 062345 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
- NEAR AVERAGE EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH PEAK HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 40 KT UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THIS TIME BUT MAJORITY SHOULD BE STEADY AND UNDER 12
MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ON NORTHWEST
WINDS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, SUPPORT THE DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST. WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING, EXPECT
WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MORE MODERATED DUE TO THE STEADY
BREEZE, BUT SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS, DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THAT WEAK COLD FRONT,
SHOULD RETURN TO VALUES NEAR WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON, IN
THE LOWER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP OUR
HIGHS/LOWS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SUBTLE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO A REGION THAT HAS HAD PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE, IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS. THE MODEL BLEND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE LOW LEVELS IS FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND
NO LIGHTNING.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80, WITH CONTINUED WARMTH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE MORE
PROBABLY THREAT (WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER).
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT THE 2000 FOOT AGL LEVEL.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVELS. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PEAK HEATING.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SOUTHERLY GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER, A
FEW GUSTS OVER 35 KT COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.4 INCHES TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES HUDSON BAY TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE AND TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2
INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PLAINS.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page