689
FXUS63 KMKX 071216
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
716 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20
TO 30 PERCENT) FOR FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 716 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE DRY COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING DOWN THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE ARE NO
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
THAT GET SQUEEZED OUT OF WHATEVER MOISTURE IS OUT THERE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CHANCES FOR THIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN CWA AT THIS POINT IS VERY LOW (I'D ARGUE LESS THAN
10%). WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND ALREADY WEAK MOISTURE
PROFILES TO BEGIN WITH, THERE JUST DOESNT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT HERE FOR ANY RAIN TO ACTUALLY HIT THE GROUND SHOULD IT
DEVELOP. THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVELS. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PEAK HEATING. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S.
A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH. THE
DIFFERENTIAL CVA WITH THIS FEATURE MAY COMBINE WITH SOME
MOISTURE AROUND AND ABOVE 800 MB TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW, BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD IN SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS THE HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES MAY COMBINE WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
BRING 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE MIXED ON THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH ROUGHLY
HALF OF THE MEMBERS AT BEST SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDER
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
80 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAY OR MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. IT WILL DEPEND ON ITS TRACK AND
HOW EXPANSIVE ANY RAIN SHIELD WITH IT BECOMES. FOR NOW, KEPT
MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE IS GAINED WITH WHERE
THAT SYSTEM MAY TRACK. IT MAY END UP BEING JUST MORE CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY ARE SHOWING A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE) FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING MOST MEMBERS WITH AT LEAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT
SOME POINT IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES PER ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 716 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPORADIC HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST DOWN THE STATE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE
IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) FOR A ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ITS UNCERTAIN IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS THAT IT WILL EVEN HIT THE
GROUND.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
29.4 INCHES TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING WEST BY THE
AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH DEPARTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AS WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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