624
FXUS63 KMKX 092000
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90/I-94 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW HUNDRETHS INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
A WAVE OF WAA DRIVEN RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, EXITING INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON AND OFF. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO SUNDAY AS REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED (HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIEST). SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BUT
LIGHTER AS THE LOW TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (20-40%) AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH A BROAD WARM FRONTOGENESIS REGION. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE 40S.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST MAY
DEVELOP.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF TIMEFRAME, WITH A BAND OF RAIN CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90/I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20 KT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KT OVERNIGHT, WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITING. LLWS MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN INTO SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KT POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY
AS LAKE MICHIGAN SITS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW, BRIEF GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY GALE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NEARSHORE ZONES
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.
AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO AROUND 29.6 INCHES AS IT
LIFTS ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY REGION, EXPECT IT TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
EASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SUB-GALE WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644...1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY.
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