611
FXUS63 KMKX 101936
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
236 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY MOVE IN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND WILL
BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 80
DEGREES. WIND GUSTS WILL END AROUND SUNSET, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND
80 DEGREES LIKELY UNDER CLEAR SKIES INSIDE THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND BEGINS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. GENERALLY MODELING IS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG) ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR (BULK SHEAR
UP TO 30 KT) AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, SO AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
(HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT). WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY, SEVERITY LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIMITED.
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PROGRESS THROUGH
THE REGION VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND AN END TO PRECIPITATION. HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S ARE EXPECTED, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AND SKIES CLEARING AS THE FRONT EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS FROM THIS NEW LOW IN THE PLAINS MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GENERALLY EASTERLY AND INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION, WITH THE GFS THE MOST INTENSE
SOLUTION WITH A DEEP, STRONG LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER,
THE CANADIAN AND EURO SHOW A STRONGER HIGH AND A SLOW LOW
PROGRESSION. KNOWING THE GFS'S BIAS TOWARD OVERDEEPENING LOWS IN
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG HIGH, LEAN TOWARD THE CANADIAN/EURO
SOLUTIONS, WHICH DO KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE THE HIGH FINALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD. BEST CHANCES (50-60%)
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WITH DRY, COLD AIR
MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN CANADA, POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR EVEN FREEZE
INCREASES.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF TIME PERIOD, WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT AT LAKE
MICHIGAN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STEADY AROUND 10-12
KT OVERNIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT. LLWS WILL END
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY FEW HIGH CLOUDS (25,000) ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING, BRINGING SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KT TO THE OPEN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF WIND POINT.
A FEW GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO JAMES BAY SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
THE LATE-WEEK TIMEFRAME, BRINGING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.
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