967
FXUS63 KMKX 110944
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
444 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY MOVE IN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN TODAY UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
FALL JUST SHY OF RECORD VALUES AT MADISON (84 IN 1928), BUT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THE EVENT OVERPERFORMANCE OCCURS, COULD
SEE RECORDS COME WITHIN REACH.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND BROKEN HIGH-ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY VENTILATE FAR EASTERN WI, HOLDING DAYTIME
HIGHS TO THE LOW 70S (OR EVEN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE).
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
OBLONG LOW PRESSURE SPANNING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGROUPS NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY,
DRIFTING INTO WI. WARM / MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
YIELDS SOME LOW CHANCES (~10-20%) FOR SHOWERS IN THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY. THE 10.18Z GFS ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CREST THE
RIDGE MIDDAY AS WELL, THOUGH THAT STANDS AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY (NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS FOR MSN, DEWPOINTS ENTERING THE LOW 60S)
WILL BRING INCREASING LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WITH IT, SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS (~1,500 JOULES CAPE ON MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE). THAT SAID, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING / MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CORE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES CENTRAL / SOUTH-CENTRAL WI (20-45%
PRECIP CHANCES). AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION, BUT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HAIL (ELEVATED CONVECTION) WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN IF APPLICABLE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION
TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY WEATHER IN
BEHIND IT. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK, THOUGH
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE, YIELDING SOME ADDITIONAL 10-30% RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY TOWARDS THE IL BORDER. THERE IS PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, PARTICULARLY PERTAINING TO THE PRESENCE OF / INTENSITY OF
A CLIPPER-SYSTEM THAT COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (40-50% CHANCES UNTIL THINGS BECOME
CLEARER).
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THEN FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO DESCEND
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS WEEK, EVENTUALLY
DRIFTING OVERHEAD AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
STRONG CAA, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND FROST POTENTIAL FOR OUR
REGION. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED THURSDAY/FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
WINDS UP BEING PRESENT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD DRIVE SOME VERY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LAKESHORE TERMINALS IN THE EVENT A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HELD ANY MENTIONS OUT OF THE UPCOMING
12Z FORECAST, BUT WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY TO LARGELY CLEAR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH A BKN DECK BASED BETWEEN FL150-FL250
MOVING IN CLOSER TO AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF LLWS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT WESTERN SITES
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE FEATURE WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE THUS
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THE COMING 12Z FORECAST AT MSN
AND JVL, AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MENTIONS FURTHER EAST
INTO TODAY.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS OBLONG LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW PRESSURE, AROUND 29.6 INCHES,
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY, VEERING NORTHERLY OR EVEN
NORTHEASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH
COULD BRING GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SHOWER / STORM
CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND INCOMING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND ELEVATED WAVES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY NORTH OF WIND
POINT AND UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WINDS AND
WAVES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY HALF OF
THIS WEEK. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LOOKING
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
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